Russia is seeking new routes for grain exports after a sharp collapse via the Black Sea — intelligence
Kyiv • UNN
Russian wheat shipments through the Black Sea have fallen sharply. Russia is redirecting cargoes to the Baltic, Murmansk, and China, but the routes are limited.
Russia is attempting to redirect its grain exports to the Baltic Sea, northern ports and China after a sharp reduction in shipments via the Black Sea. At the same time, the new routes have limited capacity, high transportation costs and other logistical obstacles. This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service, UNN writes.
In the second ten-day period of September, Russia shipped only 347,000 tonnes of wheat, compared with 1.3 million tonnes during the same period in 2025. Novorossiysk handled 72,500 tonnes, compared with 696,000 tonnes a year earlier
It is noted that Moscow is attempting to divert some cargoes to the Baltic, northern ports and the Far East. The Ultramar terminal in Ust-Luga has begun accepting grain. In September, applications for its delivery by rail amounted to approximately 260,000 tonnes. Even at maximum capacity, this route can handle about 500,000 tonnes per month. Russia's southern ports, by contrast, have annual capacity of more than 60 million tonnes. Last year, they handled nearly 90% of Russia's seaborne grain exports.
Russia is also attempting to ship grain through Murmansk. Russian Railways approved the first shipment — 40,000 tonnes from Stavropol Krai. The port is suitable for large vessels and operates year-round, but its distance from the main grain-producing regions makes the route excessively expensive. Additional costs are estimated at $18–25 per tonne ($720,000–$1 million for a 40,000-tonne shipment).
In the east, Russia is increasing shipments through China. The volume of the "New Overland Grain Corridor" rose from 2.3 million tonnes in 2024 to 5.8 million tonnes in 2025. For 2026, approximately 9 million tonnes are expected
However, according to the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, there are also strict restrictions here: railway infrastructure, terminal capacity, tariffs, phytosanitary requirements, including the absence of a phytosanitary protocol for Russian winter wheat, and Chinese quotas.
Russia cannot quickly create a replacement for the Black Sea system. This requires railways, elevators, transshipment facilities, insurance, vessels and permanent buyers. There is clearly insufficient capacity for this in the Baltic and Murmansk. The Chinese route also has its own limitations. Russia can distribute some of its grain across other routes. But it is unable to assemble a new system of the same scale from them, the intelligence service states.