russia increases production of Shaheds for winter campaign against Ukraine - ISW

russia continues to scale up the production of Shahed drones ahead of the winter campaign against Ukraine in 2024-2025, despite sanctions and technical restrictions. This is reported by UNN with reference to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Details

Analysts at the Institute for War Studies, citing Ukrainian intelligence, write in their report that a Russian factory in the Alabuga special economic zone in the Republic of Tatarstan produced 5,760 Shahed drones between January and September 2024. This is twice as many as were produced in 2023. According to leaked documents, the company has already signed an agreement to produce 6000 drones by September 2025.

It has also been reported that Russia is actively developing low-tech decoy drones similar to the Shahed, which are used to overcome Ukraine's air defense systems. It is planned to produce up to 10,000 of these decoy drones by the end of 2024, which is almost twice the number of attack drones.

The report notes that the Russians have built two new workshops at the Alabuga plant and installed drone-proof nets over the buildings. To improve logistics, the Russians have created a railroad station with a direct connection between Russia and China, through which the necessary components for drone production are supplied.

The Russian army is likely to continue to adapt its strike strategies to damage Ukraine's critical infrastructure while trying to increase production of Shahed drones. The signing of a strategic partnership agreement between Russia and Iran in January 2025 may facilitate this process

Analysts in their report write that Russia is facing restrictions in providing factories with quality components due to Western sanctions. the Russians are forced to use low-quality engines made in China. At the same time, Ukrainian forces, thanks to innovations in electronic warfare, are effectively countering the Shahed's attacks.

Key findings:

- Russia continues to build up its domestic capacity to produce Iranian Shahed drones ahead of a planned campaign of strikes against Ukraine in the winter of 2024-2025. At the same time, the country still faces restrictions on the production and use of these drones, which are likely to remain relevant in 2025.

- North Korean troops are suffering significant losses, including the first captured North Korean soldier in the Kursk region.

- Ukrainian troops launched a HIMARS strike on the Russian headquarters in the temporarily occupied territory of Zaporizhzhia region. Three Russian officers were reportedly killed. The preemptive strike was intended to prevent a possible resumption of Russian offensive operations in western Zaporizhzhia region.

- Russia's Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsia) blamed weather conditions and pilot actions for the crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 in Aktau, Kazakhstan, on December 25. However, a source in Russian law enforcement linked to Rosaviatsia claims that the agency tried to cover up the abuse of Russian air defense systems by releasing an alleged transcript of the negotiations between the crew and the controller in Grozny.

- Finnish authorities have arrested the Russian oil tanker Eagle S on suspicion of involvement in damaging underwater energy and telecommunications cables in the Baltic Sea. At the same time, it is emphasized that it is too early to say that Russia is involved in the damage.

- Russian President Vladimir Putin has appointed Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu as chairman of the newly created Scientific and Expert Council under the Russian Security Council.

- The Ukrainian Armed Forces regained positions near Siversk, while Russian troops advanced in the areas of Toretsk, Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk and Kurakhove.

- Russian regions are increasing bonuses for military service to encourage recruitment.

Recall

Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) point out that Russian President Vladimir Putin has rejected a proposal being developed by the team of US President-elect Donald Trump for a possible peace plan.