Europe sees threat of Russia testing NATO during the next two years of Trump's presidency - media
Kyiv • UNN
Europe fears that the Kremlin may perceive the next two years as a "window of opportunity." Putin could use this time to test the West's readiness for collective defense.
In Europe, there are fears that the Kremlin may perceive the next two years, while US President Donald Trump is in power, as a "window of opportunity," and that Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin could use this time to test the West's commitment to NATO, although some governments and the alliance itself consider this threat exaggerated, Politico reports, according to UNN.
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"Defense officials and lawmakers fear the Kremlin will view the next year or two, while Donald Trump is still in the White House and the EU has not yet bolstered its military capabilities, as a time to test the West's commitment to NATO," according to three EU politicians with direct knowledge of the discussions. Although Russia's war in Ukraine has shown the limits of Moscow's power, the publication writes that the Kremlin leader has long signaled his desire to seize more territory.
"Something could happen very soon — Russia has a window of opportunity," said Mika Aaltola, a Finnish center-right member of the European Parliament's Committee on Foreign Affairs. "The US is exiting Europe, transatlantic relations are in ruins, and the EU is not yet fully ready to take responsibility on its own."
"While defense officials and politicians do not rule out Putin launching a ground offensive in a NATO country, they say it is unlikely given how stretched Russia is in its fight against Ukraine," according to one senior NATO diplomat and three senior European defense officials.
"Instead, it is much more likely that he will do something more targeted or carry out an incursion aimed at creating ambiguity, hoping to sow division within NATO over whether the action meets the threshold for activating the mutual defense clause under Article 5 or not," Aaltola said.
Article 5 declares that allies must consider an armed attack against one of them "as an armed attack against all," but Trump has called NATO a "paper tiger." He is set to leave office in January 2029.
Putin could "escalate the conflict horizontally against another neighbor, trying to avoid humiliating negotiations with Ukraine," Gabrielius Landsbergis, Lithuania's former foreign minister, told the publication, having also warned of Putin's "window of opportunity."
Putin has many easy targets to choose from, Aaltola said, and an attack could "take many different forms," with the Kremlin unlikely to do something as unambiguous as "invading where NATO is strong, for example, on the Polish border."
"It could be a drone operation, it could be an operation in the Baltic Sea… It could be something in the Arctic, targeting small islands. They have a shadow fleet that is already partially militarized," Aaltola said. "A drone attack doesn't require troops, it doesn't require crossing a border."
By launching such an operation, Putin would seek to pressure Ukraine's European allies while avoiding any potential US reaction, the publication writes.
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"If there is no cross-border attack, the US might say it's not that strategically important," Aaltola said. "They are resource-constrained because of Iran, so perhaps they would advise negotiating with Russia. And that is exactly what Russia would try to do in this situation."
Europe lacks unity in assessing the severity of the immediate Russian threat. There is some tension between politicians from countries like Finland and Lithuania, who are sounding the alarm and arguing that Europe urgently needs to increase its missile and defense readiness amid delays in US weapons supplies due to the war with Iran, and a more cautious approach in Estonia and NATO itself, where officials say any "alarmism" feeds into Putin's tactics.
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But those who downplay the threat risk lulling Europe into a false sense of security, Aaltola said. "That is actually the worst thing you can create in democratic countries," he said. "We need to allocate resources, and if there is a false sense of security, then resources are not allocated to defense."
"Russia is very busy in Ukraine," Estonian President Alar Karis told the publication, adding: "I don't think it has enough capacity to try" to wage war against the Baltic states as well.
This argument was supported by a senior NATO diplomat and three senior European defense officials.
"I consider this extremely unlikely," said the senior NATO diplomat, adding: Putin's "suicidal tendency" has its limits — "especially when there is no obvious and immediate benefit."
"It is clear that Russia sees itself in a long-term confrontation with the West," said a second senior European defense official. "However, we currently maintain our assessment that in the short term there is no military threat to NATO due to Russia's engagement in Ukraine. This does not mean we should not remain vigilant, as Russia could miscalculate our unity and resolve."
A "battle on two fronts" is a "very, very risky strategy" for Putin, a third senior defense official stated, especially given that Europe is "actively moving forward" in strengthening its own defense.
But, as Karis admitted, Europe cannot rule anything out.
"You never know. And no one expected the war in Ukraine," the Estonian president said. "We are vigilant. We are ready. We are keeping our eyes open."