Europe could run out of jet fuel within six weeks - IEA

Europe has "maybe six weeks or so" of jet fuel left, the head of the International Energy Agency Fatih Birol said in an interview with the AP on Thursday, warning of possible flight cancellations "soon" if oil supplies remain blocked due to the war with Iran, UNN writes.

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IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol painted an alarming picture of the global consequences of what he called "the biggest energy crisis we have ever faced," stemming from the disruption of oil, gas, and other vital supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.

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"In the past, there was a group of straits called 'Dire Straits'. Now it's a dire strait, and it will have serious consequences for the global economy. And the longer it lasts, the worse it will be for economic growth and inflation around the world," he told the Associated Press.

The consequences will be "higher gasoline prices, higher gas prices, higher electricity prices," Birol said.

The economic hardship will be felt unevenly, and "the countries whose voices are widely heard will not be the most affected. It will mainly be developing countries. The poorest countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America," said the Turkish economist and energy expert who has headed the IEA since 2015.

But without a settlement of the Iranian war that permanently opens the Strait of Hormuz, everyone will suffer, he added.

"Some countries may be richer than others. Some countries may have more energy resources than others, but no country, no country is immune to this crisis," he said.

Almost 20% of the world's oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz in peacetime. Birol warned that failure to open the waterway within a few weeks could worsen the impact on global energy supplies.

In Europe, we have maybe six weeks or so (of) jet fuel left. If we are not able to open the Strait of Hormuz ... I can tell you soon we will hear the news that some of the flights from city A to city B might be canceled as a result of lack of jet fuel

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Dutch airline KLM and British budget carrier easyJet said on Thursday that they were not currently experiencing fuel shortages, without commenting on the IEA's warning. Meanwhile, American airline Delta Air Lines, which frequently flies to Europe, said it was aware of a "potential fuel supply issue" on the continent and was monitoring the situation, although it did not expect immediate consequences. However, all three airlines have already faced rising costs.

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KLM is canceling 160 flights to and from Amsterdam's Schiphol Airport next month, representing about 1% of its total European routes. The airline cited "rising kerosene prices" and said that a limited number of flights were "no longer financially viable."

Travelers are already paying the price. In addition to flight cancellations, some carriers are raising ticket prices and additional fees.

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Birol added: "Many government leaders tell me that if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened by the end of May, many countries - starting with weaker economies - will face huge problems, and this will lead to high inflation rates approaching slower growth or even recession in some cases."

Birol spoke out against the so-called "toll collection points" system that Iran has applied to some vessels, allowing them to pass through the strait for a fee. He said that allowing this system to be implemented permanently would set a precedent that could then be applied to other waterways, including the vital Strait of Malacca in Asia. "If we change it once, it will be difficult to reverse it," he said. "It will be difficult to have a system of tolls here that applies here but not there."

"I would like to see oil flow freely from point A to point B," he said.

Damage to Persian Gulf energy facilities

More than 110 oil tankers and more than 15 liquefied natural gas tankers are waiting in the Persian Gulf and could help alleviate the energy crisis if they could exit through the Strait of Hormuz to world markets, Birol said, adding: "But that's not enough."

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Even with a peace agreement, the war-damage to energy facilities means it could take many months before pre-conflict production levels are restored, he said.

"More than 80 key facilities in the region have been damaged. And of those 80, more than a third are severely or very severely damaged," he said.

"It would be very optimistic to think that this will happen very quickly," Birol said. "It will take gradually, gradually, up to two years to return to the state we were in before the war."

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