At the end of 2025, markets recorded a sharp increase in assets dependent on the end of the war. Shares of Polish banks, the Czech koruna, and Ukrainian Eurobonds showed high profitability. However, conflicting signals regarding negotiations are forcing investors to act more cautiously due to risks to the future autonomy of the Ukrainian economy. This is stated in the Bloomberg material, writes UNN.
Details
The driver of growth was the activation of the US in the peace process under the presidency of Donald Trump. The special Bloomberg Intelligence index for peace beneficiary stocks jumped 14% since October and 33% since the beginning of the year. Optimism was added by a €90 billion loan from the EU and a successful restructuring of Ukrainian debt. Ukraine's bonds maturing in 2029 rose to 76 cents per dollar compared to 57 cents in June.
Skepticism of large funds
Despite the growth, investment giants Barings and Ninety One remain selective, fearing that the final peace terms may limit the region's development.
There are no real mass purchases for us. I would say it's more opportunistic investing until we see the details that will allow us to better understand the structural story.
Ninety One also expressed doubt about a quick finale.
We have a significant share of Ukrainian debt, but we have tactically reduced it, as we are still skeptical that a deal will be reached in the near future.
The role of Russian assets
Further dynamics will depend on reconstruction funding. Investors consider the issue of using frozen Russian assets to be critical.
If an agreement is reached on the use of Russian reserves, it will be very positive for all holders of Ukrainian bonds, and it will have a domino effect for the public and even private sector.
Fitch upgrades Ukraine's rating: country out of "restricted default"23.12.25, 15:35 • [views_1964]