The massive violation of Polish airspace by Russian drones could become a serious challenge for NATO. At the same time, Moscow could use the incident to discredit Ukraine and accuse Kyiv of trying to drag Warsaw into the war. Political scientist Oleh Lisnyi told UNN journalist about this.
As the expert noted, this is not the first time that the Russian Federation has crossed the border of a NATO member country, specifically Poland, with its aircraft.
We remember very well, at least we should remember the Russian missile that flew into Polish territory and even killed a citizen of that country, but under pressure from the United States, Poland pretended that it was Ukrainian (missile - ed). And Biden then, if I'm not mistaken, he was in Malaysia and from there he saw that it was a Ukrainian missile
He added that, although the investigation is still ongoing, everyone, so to speak, decided "not to pedal this situation anymore." But today the attack was repeated, and unlike the previous one, it was massive.
And there can be several versions here. One is that drones cannot fly so massively without prior software programming. That is, each of them has a target embedded in it, where it flies. Here, "stories" about them deviating, in my opinion, seem ridiculous. However, I am sure that Russia will try to make another IPSO on this - psychological pressure on Poland and NATO member countries
This, in turn, will be considered "nothing less than a provocation by the Ukrainian authorities."
This will be 100% and it is worth emphasizing and noting in that sense. Why I draw such a conclusion is because I have already looked at their public pages a bit, they (in Russia - ed.) have some who say that Russia did it, and there are some who confirm my version that "it's not us, it's Ukraine." And that's how they drag Poland into the war
In this context, according to the expert, what is important is how Polish society will react to this, which, like any society in democratic states, puts pressure on the authorities. And there is also a certain diversity in Polish public pages, the expert says.
From sensible people who understand what happened, to those who are already falling for, as I understand it, these Russian fakes. Therefore, there will be a lot in the information field in Poland. And what we may not like is that there will be a Russian trace and a Polish one too. So it's fashionable for them to blame us for everything there
Whether Poland will dare to act at the NATO level is questionable. As the expert says, Poland may consider Article 4 of NATO, which provides for consultations with allies if one of the alliance members believes that military force may be used against it or has already been used.
Hypothetically, in my opinion, this is more Article 5, because the Poles always said that when those drones flew in, they were isolated and did not aim to harm a NATO member country. But here there were 10, right? And they flew very far, there, if I'm not mistaken, 50 km deep. And the military considered this an act of aggression
So, according to Lisnyi, in this case, everything depends on whether Poland dares and whether there will be pressure from NATO to "ignore this situation, without forcing allies to react in a certain way, so as not to "provoke Russia."
The political scientist says that it would be beneficial for Poland to raise the "degree" around this event.
This should be done, because we have already come up with an initiative, old and new, that let's allow NATO member countries to shoot down drones and missiles even over our territory in order to protect themselves first of all. That is, if you shoot down over the territory of, say, Ukraine, then, of course, all this will not reach Poland
At the same time, whether the Poles will agree to this and whether they will consider it necessary for themselves now is a big question.
Therefore, I remain, you know, a pessimist here, although, in my opinion, now is the most opportune moment, by the way, to accept our proposal and protect ourselves
Nevertheless, Poland's reaction is currently predictably moderate, "not what the situation demands," says the expert.
Their incomprehensible position and reliance on the United States always being behind them and helping them, this is also a challenge, in fact. Now it will be clear how much the United States is behind them
When asked what could explain Trump's reaction, who refused to comment on the incident, the political scientist replied that it was not convenient news for him, so he took a pause.
Well, this is inconvenient news for him, and that's why he ignores it. He will work out his understanding of this moment, then he will react. Recently, he met with the president, told how everything was fine, and then boom, and something like that. And he immediately takes a pause. Well, Trump is Trump, there's nothing new here
Earlier, UNN wrote that US President Donald Trump refused to comment on the presence of Russian drones in Polish airspace.