Despite Moscow's threats regarding "systemic strikes" on Kyiv, the Russian military industry faces serious limitations in missile production, which prevents the Russian Federation from constantly increasing the scale of attacks. At the same time, the situation for Ukraine remains difficult due to a shortage of missiles for Patriot systems and the constant growth of Shahed drone production in Russia. Anton Zemlyanyi, a senior analyst at the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center, told UNN about this in an exclusive comment.
"Russia cannot infinitely increase the number of strikes"
After a massive attack on Kyiv on the night of May 24, the Russian Foreign Ministry declared its readiness for "systemic strikes" on the Ukrainian capital. However, according to Anton Zemlyanyi, such threats are more psychological and political in nature than having a real military basis.
The expert explains that the Russian defense industry is unable to support a constant increase in the number of missile strikes, especially when it comes to ballistic missiles.
Lavrov declares systemic strikes on Kyiv, but the main question here is how systemic they can actually be. The Russian defense industry has production limits. If we talk about ballistic missiles, then, according to the GUR (Main Intelligence Directorate), Russia produces approximately 60 "Iskanders" per month. And at the same time, we do not see any breakthrough growth in production
According to him, an analysis of the intensity of Russian attacks shows that the Russian Federation is already spending almost its entire current production volume.
We analyzed the spring period. During this time, the Russians used approximately 173 ballistic missiles: Iskander, S-300, and S-400. If we set aside the S-300 and S-400, which are often used as strike weapons, it turns out to be approximately 150 ballistic missiles in three months. And they produced about 180 during the same period. That is, their resource for a large-scale increase in strikes is very limited
He emphasizes that Russia also cannot completely exhaust its strategic reserves.
They have a strategic reserve that they cannot completely "zero out." They are still forced to take into account the risks of other conflicts or a potential escalation with the West. Because of this, Russia cannot afford to infinitely increase the pace of strikes
"Moscow's threats are an attempt at demoralization"
In Zemlyanyi's opinion, statements about strikes on "decision-making centers" in Kyiv are part of the informational pressure on Ukraine and its partners.
This is, first and foremost, a scare tactic. The Russians are trying to demoralize Ukrainian society, create an atmosphere of constant fear, and pressure Ukraine's Western partners. Lavrov's calls to Western politicians are also an element of blackmail and psychological influence
At the same time, the expert emphasizes that such statements cannot be completely ignored.
Systemic strikes are possible, but only with a certain periodicity. For this, the Russians need to accumulate missiles. They cannot launch such massive packages every day
"The biggest problem for Ukraine is the shortage of Patriot PAC-3"
The analyst points out that the main challenge for Ukraine now is not only Russian missiles but also the depletion of the Ukrainian air defense system. The situation with intercepting ballistic targets is particularly critical.
We see that ballistic missiles continue to be shot down, but the efficiency is gradually decreasing. More and more missiles are breaking through air defense and reaching targets. We have a shortage of PAC-3 missiles for the Patriot
According to him, the problem is directly related to the stocks of interceptor missiles for the Patriot.
The Air Force Command is already explicitly saying that after every massive attack, interceptor stocks are depleted, and new deliveries do not have time to compensate for them. And this is currently the main challenge for Ukrainian diplomacy
He emphasized that the issue is not only the political will of the allies but also the physical availability of missiles.
The US is currently actively spending Patriots in the Middle East, particularly due to the situation around Iran. And the production rates of these missiles are not very high. Therefore, the problem is truly serious
According to him, Ukraine needs to resolve this issue as early as this summer, rather than waiting for the next heating season.
The President has already said that we need to approach winter prepared. And the issue of air defense here is key
"The situation with cruise missiles is better"
At the same time, according to Zemlyanyi, Ukrainian air defense demonstrates significantly better results against cruise missiles.
The effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense against cruise missiles is currently at about 80%. And here the situation is much more stable than with ballistics
The expert explains this by the fact that to fight cruise missiles, Ukraine uses not only expensive Patriot or SAMP/T systems.
Cruise missiles can be shot down by mobile fire groups, MANPADS, and short-range systems. This significantly levels the situation. Therefore, we feel more confident here
"Oreshnik was not a strike on Kyiv"
Separately, the analyst commented on Russia's use of the "Oreshnik" medium-range missile.
According to him, one missile launch on the night of May 24 has been officially confirmed, although information about a possible second launch is also being actively discussed.
There are videos and certain indirect signs that may indicate a second "Oreshnik" that could have fallen in the occupied part of the Donetsk region. But without confirmation from intelligence or satellite data, it is too early to speak of this as a fact
At the same time, Zemlyanyi does not believe that the missile that hit Bila Tserkva "missed" Kyiv.
I don't think it was a miss by 80 kilometers. Most likely, the Russians were hitting Bila Tserkva specifically. An "Oreshnik" strike directly on Kyiv would be a very serious escalation. And if there were no massive effect after such a strike, it would become an informational defeat for Russia
The analyst explained that the "Oreshnik" is a medium-range ballistic missile with a cluster principle of destruction.
The missile has six blocks, and each of them contains six more submunitions. This is exactly why we saw a large number of burning objects in the sky
He added that these combat elements are not classic high-explosive charges.
In fact, these are dummies that imitate a nuclear warhead. They do not have powerful explosives. Destruction occurs due to the enormous speed and kinetic energy during impact
According to him, that is why when hitting the ground, such blocks leave deep craters without a large detonation.
If such a dummy hits a building, the destruction will be very serious. But when it falls into the soil, it simply "bites" into the ground due to the colossal speed