The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries expects higher oil demand in 2026 and forecasts a slowdown in production growth from the US and other non-OPEC+ producers. This opens the way for an increase in its own production after several years of restrictions. This was reported by Reuters, writes UNN.
Details
OPEC released an updated monthly report, in which it raised its forecast for global oil demand in 2026 to 1.38 million barrels per day, which is 100,000 barrels more than previously expected. Demand in 2025, according to the organization's estimates, will remain unchanged.
Along with this, the forecast for supply growth from non-OPEC+ countries decreased to 630,000 barrels per day. Last month, expectations were at 730,000 barrels. The largest adjustments concern the US: shale oil production in 2026 is projected to even decrease by 100,000 barrels per day, which contrasts with previous estimates of stable production.
OPEC explains this dynamic by the sustained financial discipline of companies, the slowdown in drilling rates, and changes in the structure of production, in particular the increase in gas volumes. This creates favorable conditions for OPEC+'s plans to regain lost market share by gradually increasing its own production.
Experts also slightly improved the forecast for global economic growth for 2025 to 3%, citing new US trade agreements and higher-than-expected growth rates in India, China, and Brazil. Despite geopolitical tensions and trade disputes with Washington, in July, OPEC+ countries already increased production by 335,000 barrels per day, demonstrating readiness for more active market expansion.
Recall
Oil prices were little changed in early Asian trading but were heading for their biggest weekly loss since late June, as investors expressed concern about the impact on the global economy of tariffs that took effect on Thursday.