Oil prices are forecast to rise by more than 6% over the week as the United States and Iran resumed hostilities in the seventh month of the conflict. Meanwhile, diesel fuel prices in the United States reached a record level. UNN writes about this, citing Reuters.
Details
Brent crude oil futures rose 6.1% over the week, while West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose 8.3%.
However, both contracts declined slightly during the day: Brent fell by 75 cents, or 0.79%, to $94.77 per barrel by 12:30 GMT (16:30 Kyiv time), while WTI fell by 95 cents, or 1.04%, to $90.35.
The rise in oil prices, combined with a much sharper increase in fuel prices, has driven up inflation and the cost of government borrowing worldwide and intensified fears that the global economy could face a "hard landing."
"Diesel affects every sector of the economy. This is one of the reasons why government bond yields in the United States are so high—the expectation of further inflation growth," said Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy.
"Average diesel fuel prices in the United States reached record highs amid the resumption of U.S.-Iranian hostilities and Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries, which led to increased supply disruptions," the publication said.
Analysts and tracking systems point to continuing disruptions in oil supplies.
The U.S. government said that Middle Eastern oil supplies had returned to nearly normal levels in recent weeks, but analysts and tanker-tracking systems said supplies remained severely disrupted.
U.S. strikes this week, which killed and wounded dozens of Iranian civilians, marked the fiercest clashes between the two countries since July.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz again warned that Israel would "paralyze" Iran's military and civilian infrastructure, including energy facilities, if Tehran attacked it.
The U.S. campaign to suppress Iran's economy by blocking oil exports and preventing sanctions evasion is becoming increasingly difficult to withstand, three senior Iranian sources said.
"The combination of renewed U.S.-Iranian hostilities and continuing uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz was enough to increase the risk assessment," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.
On Thursday, four commercial vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz, well below the 10-day average of about 15, according to preliminary shipping data.
On Wednesday, two Iraqi energy company officials said that Iraq had increased oil exports in August to approximately 2.34 million barrels per day from approximately 1.35 million barrels per day in July.
What oil price is forecast
Citi raised its forecast for the average price of Brent crude in the third quarter to $86 per barrel from $80, saying that reopening the strait was taking longer than previously expected.
ANZ analysts also raised their short-term forecast for the price of Brent crude to $95 per barrel, noting the potential for an increase if the conflict in the Middle East escalates.