On Tuesday, January 6, 2026, global oil prices showed a decline. Traders are pricing in the prospect of increased crude oil supply from Venezuela following the capture of Nicolas Maduro by U.S. forces. The market expects that the regime change will lead to the lifting of sanctions and an influx of investment into the world's largest oil reserves. This was reported by Reuters, according to UNN.
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In Tuesday morning trading, Brent crude futures fell by 0.2% to $61.62 per barrel. U.S. WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude dropped by 0.3%, settling at $58.15 per barrel.
Analysts note that although Venezuela currently produces less than 1% of the global oil volume (approximately 934,000 barrels per day), the potential for a rapid increase in production under U.S. leadership is creating "bearish" pressure on the market.
I think that if Trump’s plan is even partially realized, Venezuela’s crude production has to grow... If it grows, it's going to add pressure to a market that's already oversupplied
Forecasts for 2026 The majority of experts surveyed by Reuters back in December already predicted an oil supply surplus in 2026.
Forecasts for 2026
The majority of experts surveyed by Reuters back in December already predicted an oil supply surplus in 2026. The operation in Caracas has only intensified these expectations. Goldman Sachs and UBS note that while infrastructure restoration will take time, the mere fact of lifting the U.S. embargo on Venezuelan barrels is a significant factor for further price declines.
An additional pressure factor remains weak global demand and the OPEC+ decision to maintain current production volumes without cuts, despite the geopolitical turbulence.