American intelligence is needed by Ukraine both to defend against Russian missiles and to strike military targets on enemy territory. Over the past few days, Ukraine has not received warnings about the enemy preparing missile attacks. Will the United States put Ukraine in an intelligence “vice” and what other levers of pressure does Trump have — UNN journalists discussed these issues with Oleksii Buriachenko, president of the International Institute for Security Studies.
Why American intelligence is important for Ukraine
According to the expert, American satellite intelligence helps Ukraine detect missile threats and use weapons that operate according to U.S. communications standards. In the expert’s view, this concerns not only American systems but also some weapons supplied by other NATO countries. At the same time, European states have their own capabilities, particularly France and the United Kingdom, but they do not cover the full range of U.S. capabilities.
We use U.S. satellite intelligence in two areas: both for defense and for moving the war onto the territory of the aggressor state. That is why it is critical for us to be able to detect missile launches in time and accordingly configure air defense systems for our own protection
Oleksii Buriachenko also emphasized that European partners are already partially compensating for the need for intelligence, but there is currently no full replacement for American capabilities. Therefore, if the transfer of information to Ukraine is halted, it will have to adapt to new conditions.
The issue is not compensation, but the fact that we work simultaneously with American satellite intelligence and with our European partners. However, the specific nature of NATO and American weaponry is that it is primarily designed to work with American satellite intelligence. Therefore, as of now, Ukraine will not be able to emerge from this situation without losses if the United States really decides to stop providing us with satellite intelligence
Can Trump use intelligence as an instrument of pressure
The political scientist recalled that Donald Trump had previously restricted Ukraine’s access to American intelligence for several days. According to him, at that time it was more difficult for Ukrainian air defense systems to respond to massive Russian attacks. However, in his assessment, the current situation is different because Ukraine has partially diversified its sources of intelligence information.
If we are talking about the current situation, we have no confirmed information that Trump is doing this or will do so. At least in the public sphere, he clearly stated that the United States continues to provide intelligence to Ukraine. In other words, there is no delay. The military says that this delay may be related to the fact that Russia has modified its missiles for the S-400, which had already caused us problems
Trump answered whether the US continues to share intelligence with Ukraine13.10.26, 19:40
Oleksii Buriachenko also believes that the domestic political situation in the United States may influence the American president’s decisions regarding Ukraine. However, in the political scientist’s view, the possibility of restricting the transfer of intelligence and the sale of American weapons nevertheless remains one of Washington’s instruments of influence.
Elections are the main reason behind this entire story. The configuration may turn out completely differently. If major criticism of Trump in the public sphere over the diesel deal gains momentum, he may, on the contrary, do something else beneficial for Ukraine. But the opposite may also happen: if Trump decides to force through the terms he agreed on with the Russian Federation, he may resolve this issue by putting pressure on Ukraine. He has instruments of pressure — intelligence and the sale of American weapons
In addition, the expert noted that Ukraine’s dependence on U.S. permits for the sale of American weapons remains a separate problem, even if those weapons were purchased by third countries. He emphasized that without official authorization from Washington, Ukraine will not be able to buy such equipment from other states, and therefore called preserving access to intelligence and the ability to purchase American weapons important tactical objectives for Ukraine.
For Ukraine, it is important now that, under any circumstances, it retain access to intelligence and the ability to purchase American weapons. The United States and President Trump have their own political and economic goals. Sometimes they coincide with ours, and sometimes they do not