Internal assessments by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development show that the economy remains critically dependent on imports of high-tech products, despite official Kremlin statements about accelerated import substitution. This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, informs UNN.
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It is noted that this undermines the realism of Russia's six-year plan for economic transformation until 2030, which envisages achieving 70-90% technological independence in strategic sectors – from mechanical engineering and aviation to energy and chemical industry.
Actual indicators significantly lag behind the declared goals. Technological independence in high-speed rail transport is only 15%, in shipbuilding and energy – 30%, in the production of unmanned systems – 40%, in industrial machine building – about 65%. Restrictions on access to Western technologies have not reduced import dependence, but only changed its structure: China's share in the supply of microchips to Russia has grown to approximately 90%, forming new long-term risks of unilateral dependence
It is indicated that against the background of a significant gap between plans and reality, as well as taking into account limited production, technological and human resources, achieving the declared level of technological independence by Russia by 2030 is unlikely.
"The current dynamics indicate that Russia's course towards 'technological sovereignty' is primarily declarative and is not supported by the existing capabilities of the economy," the Ukrainian intelligence summarizes.
Recall
According to the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, the Russian banking system in 2025 lost key signs of stability, despite the regulator's reassuring rhetoric. The net profit of banks decreased by 8% compared to 2024 and amounted to 45 billion US dollars, while the return on equity fell to 18%.