The government has presented the Budget Declaration for 2027-2029, which, under an optimistic scenario, envisages a gradual weakening of the hryvnia to 51.5 UAH/$ by the end of 2029, reported MP from the financial committee Olha Vasylevska-Smagliuk on social media on Tuesday, writes UNN.
Details
According to her, the Budget Declaration for the next three years was presented to the coalition council by Minister of Finance Serhiy Marchenko in the presence of the Prime Minister and the entire government. The meeting took place at the initiative of Yuliia Svyrydenko, she indicated.
"The Budget Declaration provides for two scenarios: the end of the war and the continuation of the war," the MP reported.
Hryvnia Exchange Rate
According to her data, in the baseline scenario (end of the war), inflation in 2027 will be 8.9%, and the dollar exchange rate at the end of that year will be 48.3 UAH.
Even in the government's optimistic scenario, a gradual weakening of the hryvnia is factored in: the average annual rate will rise from 44.4 UAH/$ in 2026 to 50.7 UAH/$ in 2029. By the end of 2029, the dollar will cost 51.5 UAH
Vasylevska-Smagliuk also listed the priorities defined by the government in the Budget Declaration for 2027-2029.
"The Ministry of Finance presented the key priorities of the Budget Declaration for 2027-2029. The main emphasis is placed on maintaining social support for citizens, raising social standards, and preparing for new challenges in the process of the country's recovery," the MP indicated.
According to her, among the main priorities are:
- maintaining expenditures provided for in the 2026 budget, in particular the financing of screening programs, student meals, teacher salaries, and demographic development measures;
- raising social standards and guarantees at rates exceeding inflation. In particular, growth is projected for:
- the minimum wage: in 2027 — by 10.4%; in 2028 — by 8.7%; in 2029 — by 7.1%;
- the subsistence minimum: in 2027 — by 10.9%; in 2028 — by 8.9%; in 2029 — by 7.1%.
- implementation of new state policies to solve key tasks during the formation of budgets for the following years, depending on the scenario of the security and economic situation.
The Budget Declaration, she noted, is the main medium-term budget planning document and defines the guidelines for the formation of the state budget for the next three years. According to government officials, the main task remains ensuring the sustainability of public finances, social protection of citizens, and creating conditions for the recovery of Ukraine's economy.
Borrowing and the Need for International Financing
"Next year we will also borrow more. The government expects the growth of public debt at the end of 2026 to be at the level of 106.1% of GDP. In 2027 – 113%," Vasylevska-Smagliuk indicated.
"Ukraine's need for international financing in 2027 is 2 trillion 134.5 billion UAH. This should be international aid from the G7, EU, World Bank, UK, IMF, and taking into account the grant from the EU and the loan from the UK, the repayment of which is carried out at the expense of frozen assets of the RF," she added.
Budget Deficit and Expenditures
According to her, in the event of the end of active hostilities this year, the government plans to return to a more restrained budget policy after peak military spending and predicts a rapid reduction of the budget deficit: 18.5% of GDP in 2026; 17.7% in 2027; 11.1% in 2028; 5.5% in 2029.
She also spoke about plans to reduce costs. "The government expects that after the security situation improves, the need for military spending will decrease. Budget expenditures should reach a peak in 2027 and then begin to decline: 2026 - 4.77 trillion UAH; 2027 - 5.05 trillion UAH; 2028 - 4.87 trillion UAH; 2029 - 4.55 trillion UAH," she indicated.
GDP Growth
If peace can be achieved in 2026, the government, according to her, expects an acceleration of economic growth: 2026 +2.6% real GDP; 2027 +4.5%; 2028 +5.3%; 2029 +6.7%.
"Nominal GDP over this period should grow from 10.1 trillion UAH in 2026 to almost 15 trillion UAH in 2029," the MP reported.
Remuneration and Additional Payments for the Military
Vasylevska-Smagliuk also reported that Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko indicated that "the additional payment to military salaries - plus 10 thousand UAH for rear specialists should be continued next year as well."
Also, according to her, "Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko reported that she had a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who raised the issue of reforming labor remuneration." "A full reform will require about 320 billion UAH. But, as Svyrydenko says, it makes sense to start this discussion so that the first salary reviews take place soon. The government's plans also include an increase in the minimum wage. Over three years, they predict its increase by almost 29%. (The figures themselves were slightly higher)," the MP indicated.