Will Russia be able to flood Ukraine by destroying reservoir dams?
Kyiv • UNN
Russia may attempt to destroy more dams in Ukraine, but a catastrophe on the scale of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant is currently unlikely. At the same time, even smaller-scale destruction could cause problems that would negatively impact the economy, the environment, and the daily lives of ordinary Ukrainians.
In mid-April, the Russian military launched an extreme attack on Ukraine which, if successful, would have posed a threat to the country's infrastructure and ecosystem. This refers to the attempt to destroy the dam of the Pechenihy Reservoir in the Kharkiv region using guided aerial bombs.
Russia regularly attacks small and large hydraulic structures in Ukraine. The motives are complex: to slow down the advance of the Defense Forces, to provoke an environmental and man-made disaster, and to intimidate the civilian population.
Regarding the consequences of such enemy military operations and where in Ukraine a disaster of the magnitude seen after Russia blew up the Kakhovka HPP - destroying the reservoir and flooding surrounding villages - could recur, UNN spoke with expert and ecologist Oleh Lystopad.
Dams and dikes in Ukraine: how many are functioning and how they are protected
According to the UNN interlocutor, many hydraulic structures of various levels operate in Ukraine: their number is measured in the tens of thousands.
"On Ukraine's rivers, there are officially over 50,000 dams today. There are 1,100 reservoirs and tens of thousands more ponds,"
Among these objects are both large strategic reservoirs and local structures. Ecologists have already recorded cases of their damage or destruction due to the actions of the Russian military. This includes, in particular, the Oskil Reservoir (which existed until 2022 in the Kharkiv region) and strikes on the dam of the Karachunivske Reservoir (located in Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk region).
At the same time, the nature of the destruction varies. According to Lystopad, missile strikes do not always lead to critical damage.
"It is difficult to destroy these objects with bombing or missile fire. Guaranteed destruction requires access to the structure and the ability to plant explosives,"
According to the expert's assessment, this is exactly the scenario the Russian military implemented in the case of the Kakhovka HPP, which was blown up from the inside on June 6, 2023.
Why Moscow attacks Ukrainian hydraulic structures
The motives for the occupiers' attacks on hydraulic facilities can vary. The ecologist does not single out one determining factor, pointing to the complex nature of the impact.
"All versions are likely simultaneously. These are attempts to influence combat operations, the desire to create water supply problems, and the infliction of environmental damage,"
Separately, the expert mentions the impact on the civilian population by creating crisis conditions in the rear.
Is a repetition of the "Kakhovka scenario" possible in Ukraine?
Oleh Lystopad holds the view that the risk of a repeat disaster depends on several factors, the key one being control over the territory. Without physical access to the facility, implementing a scenario of large-scale destruction is significantly more difficult.
At the same time, the threat does not disappear completely. The expert emphasizes that risks should not be ignored, but there is also no sense in exaggerating them.
"We shouldn't relax, but there's no need to be constantly afraid either,"
He draws attention to the fact that pre-developed response plans exist for every hydraulic infrastructure object. They provide for coordinated actions by civil protection services and local authorities in the event of an emergency.
"The response system for such threats in Ukraine was formed even before the full-scale war. It includes action algorithms for various scenarios,"
The expert emphasizes that the effectiveness of the response largely depends on the coordination of services and the participation of civil society. In particular, this refers to the need for coordinated actions, a clear understanding of priorities, and the distribution of resources in crisis conditions.
"Rescuers work very professionally, but the help of volunteers also plays an important role,"
What awaits the capital if the enemy destroys the Kyiv Reservoir dam
The ecologist does not hide that the enemy's plans may include the destruction of the Kyiv Reservoir dam, but simultaneously emphasizes that relevant scenarios have already been calculated and are used during drills for rescuers and other service representatives.
"In Kyiv, drills are regularly held in case of the destruction of the Kyiv Reservoir dam. The greatest threat is to the left bank. There, the water could rise by approximately six meters,"
According to Oleh Lystopad, if the aggressor manages to implement such a scenario, the main task for the capital's authorities will be timely evacuation or moving people to safe levels of buildings. This primarily concerns minimizing human casualties, while material damage is considered inevitable.
The expert also clarifies that the water will not remain in the city for a long time.
"It will recede, and it will be possible to return to restoration,"
Consequences of Russian attacks on dams and dikes: what they will be for Ukrainians
As the ecologist explains, any destruction of hydraulic structures will have a significant impact on the environment. Changes in water levels lead to the death of ecosystems that have formed over years.
"When a reservoir is drained, all its inhabitants die. During flooding, animals that do not have time to evacuate also perish,"
He details: this applies to small rodents and birds as well as larger representatives of fauna caught in the rapid flooding zone. Such processes are long-term and affect the biodiversity of the entire region.
A separate block involves risks to the country's infrastructure and the entire economy. After all, the destruction of some dams can have local but significant consequences for cities and regions. In particular, this refers to water supply problems and the impact on the agricultural sector.
"This will create water supply problems for a large city. There are backup sources, but using them requires time and resources,"
The UNN interlocutor adds that the water supply system in certain regions, particularly in eastern Ukraine, has already suffered significant destruction. According to Lystopad, the infrastructure that ensured water delivery has been effectively destroyed.
"Water pipelines, pumping stations, and treatment systems are destroyed. There is physically no possibility to supply water,"
This makes rapid restoration impossible even if alternative sources are available.