Ukraine's shadow economy may account for up to 60% of GDP - expert

The shadow economy in Ukraine has always been large, some estimate it even at 60% of GDP. A small share in it is taken, in particular, by "gray" grain exports. This opinion was expressed by economic expert Oleksandr Okhrimenko in an exclusive commentary to UNN.

"In Ukraine, the shadow economy has always been large. It is difficult to calculate, some people believe that at least 50-60 percent of GDP is the shadow economy," Okhrimenko said.

According to him, this includes "gray" grain exports, although they are not predominant.

"We have only farmers engaged in "gray" grain. Yes, they use various illegal actions. The conflict that took place in Poland was due to the fact that our guys illegally imported grain and sold it without paying taxes. Yes, this happens, but if you look at the whole export structure, these are not large volumes. After all, we export more grain "in white"," Okhrimenko added.

He also noted that "in the shadows" is primarily everything related to trade. "We have today, if you look, a lot of trade operations are done by FLPs - there is "gray", there is really a shadow economy," the economist explained.

Add

Earlier UNN told how the scheme of gray export of grain works. To do this, dishonest entrepreneurs, in particular, use "risky" enterprises. One example is the grain terminal "Olympex", which is still almost the only gateway for "gray" exports.

In particular, in January 2021, law enforcers were interested in a number of companies involved in grain export and associated with GNT Group of Odessa businessmen Serhiy Groza and Vladimir Naumenko. LLC "Ferko", LLC "Metalsukrane Corp LTD", LLC "Grain Reloading Complex "Inzernoexport" and enterprise "Vtormetexport", belonging to GNT Group, actively used the requisites of" risky" companies for export operations. In the course of the investigation, the territorial department of the BEB in the Odessa region identified at least three such "risky" enterprises: AUTSTAFF 19 LLC, ALISENTA TRADE LLC, and SOLTEK PRODUCT LLC. In addition, the investigation found that the exported grain was stored, inter alia, in the warehouses of Olympex Coupe International LLC, which is also controlled by Groza and Naumenko.

Based on the results of the investigation, law enforcers found that none of the mentioned "risky" enterprises had no proof of purchase of grains that were planned to be exported - more than 2 thousand tons of corn, barley, wheat (this is only what was found by law enforcers during the searches). In addition, all these enterprises violated the requirements of financial and tax reporting, demonstrated zero profitability, and understated profit tax.

According to law enforcers' calculations, Groza and Naumenko's companies caused almost UAH 37.5m damage to the state within the framework of this criminal case alone. At the same time, the exporter of "gray" grain was Agiros LLC, which belongs to a well-known smuggler Vadim Alperin, against whom the SNBO imposed sanctions in 2021 and who was deprived of Ukrainian citizenship. And shipped these grains, according to media reports, another company controlled by Groza and Naumenko, "Attollo Granum." 

This criminal proceeding is currently still under investigation.

Another criminal proceedinginvolving Groza and Naumenko's company, Olympex Coupe International LLC, is being investigated by the territorial department of the Kyiv City BEB. It was opened a year later, in 2022, but also concerns "gray" grain exports.

The case is being investigated under articles on tax evasion, forgery of documents for state registers, legalization (laundering) of proceeds of crime and illegal handling of weapons or ammunition.

The scheme used by Groza and Naumenko's company is identical to the one used earlier, only the names of the fictitious companies differ, and not all of them. In particular, it includes AUTSTAFF 19 LLC mentioned in another criminal proceeding. 

In addition to this company, they also used the "risky" companies EXPRESS ALL and AGROTRANS-GROUP. With their help, according to the investigation, at least 40,000 tons of grain and oilseeds disappeared from the terminal in 2023.