The structure of the world population is changing due to falling birth rates: Ukraine is among the outsiders. What's next?

The world is approaching a low-fertility future. By 2050, more than three-quarters (155 out of 204) of countries will not have high enough fertility to sustain their populations over time. This is according to a study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). UNN looked into demographic trends and the situation in Ukraine.

Researchers claim that by 2100, the number of countries where fertility levels will not be able to sustain the population will increase to 97% of countries (198 out of 204). 

"Baby boom" and "baby crash" will divide the world 

Researchers predict that the world will face two opposing trends: a "baby crash" in developed countries and a "baby boom" in low-income countries. Analysts predict that the number of births in the world will nearly double in low-income regions, from 18% in 2021 to 35% in 2100; and in sub-Saharan Africa, one in two children will be born on the planet by 2100.

In 2021, 29% of the world's children were born in sub-Saharan Africa. This is projected to increase to more than half (54%) of all children by 2100.

Total fertility rate 

The fertility rate or total fertility rate (TFR), that is, the number of births to one woman, has been declining for a long time.

The global rate has more than halved over the past 70 years, from about five children for every woman in 1950 to 2.2 children in 2021 (some reports put it at 2.5).

For population replacement, this indicator must be at least 2.1. Already in 2021 it was lower in more than half of all countries and territories - 110 and 204. The fertility rate is particularly low in South Korea and Hong Kong. IHME researchers also categorize Serbia, where the fertility rate is below 1.1 children per woman, as one of the countries with an exceptionally low fertility rate.

But fertility remains high in much of sub-Saharan Africa - the region's RRR is almost double the global average: four children per woman in 2021. Chad's RRR of seven births is the highest in the world.

Global fertility is projected to decline further in the coming decades, reaching an RRR of about 1.8 in 2050 and 1.6 in 2100, well below replacement level. By 2100, only six of 204 countries and territories (Chad, Samoa, Somalia, Tonga, Niger, Chad, and Tajikistan) are expected to have fertility rates above 2.1 births per woman. In 13 countries, including Bhutan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Saudi Arabia, the rate is projected to even fall below one child per woman.  

The SCR in Western Europe is projected to be 1.44 in 2050 and decline to 1.37 in 2100, with Israel, Iceland, Denmark, France, Israel, and Germany expected to have the highest fertility rates, ranging from 2.09 to 1.40 at the end of the century. The rest of Europe and parts of Asia are projected to have much lower rates.

Most of the world is moving towards natural population decline (when the number of deaths exceeds the number of live births). Only 26 countries are projected to experience population growth in 2100 as live births continue to exceed deaths, including Angola, Uganda and Zambia.

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Situation in Ukraine

The birth rate has never been high. During the years of research the highest birth rate was recorded in 1991 - 1.77. As we can see it was hardly approaching the optimal indicator of 2.1 necessary for the change of generations. Further the indicator decreased even more. In 2001 the indicator was 1.08. In 2002, growth was recorded up to the coefficient of 1.1. With some fluctuations, the growth of SCR continued until 2015 and at the peak reached 1.51. However, by 2021, the SCR fell to 1.16, and in 2022 the situation deteriorated even more significantly and the indicator fell below 1 to 0.9. 

According to the forecasts of researchers from Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, by 2050 Ukraine will be among the ten countries with the lowest RRMS - it will be 1.01. Only such countries as South Korea (0.82), Puerto Rico (0.84) and Taiwan (0.9) will have even lower rates, while Serbia is predicted to have a RRMS similar to our country's - 1.01. 

The complex demographic situation in Ukraine has been exacerbated by a full-scale war. According to the State Statistics Service, the population of Ukraine was just over 40.9 million people. However, according to the Ukrainian Institute for the Future as of 2023, the actual population of Ukraine was already 29 million people.   

This population decline is caused by the deaths of our citizens in the war, as well as by forced migration. It should be noted that children and women prevail among migrants, a significant proportion of whom are of childbearing age.

"Children are up to about 40% - 30 to 40% there depends on the country. Another somewhere around 20% are men of all ages and varying degrees of health. And the rest are women," says demographer Ella Libanova.

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In response to this situation, the government is developing the Demographic Development Strategy for the period until 2033 , which is scheduled to be approved in the third quarter of 2024.

"Among the strategic goals of the country's demographic development are: increasing the birth rate, supporting the family, reducing premature mortality, ensuring migration growth of the population, economic self-sufficiency and increasing the well-being of citizens, and developing opportunities for a quality life," the Ministry of Social Policy said. 

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But, as say demographers, even if Ukraine manages to increase the SCR about "baby boom" is out of the question - the maximum is the achievement of SCR at the level necessary to recreate generations - 2.1.

But the authorities believe that more is needed. The other day, the head of the government, Denys Shmygal, made a statement on how many children each Ukrainian family should have.

"In general, every Ukrainian family should have at least three children in order for Ukraine to have excellent future prospects," - said the Prime Minister, adding that the state will support young families, although in the conditions of war every hryvnia goes to provide defense and birth rate support is an issue requiring elaboration in terms of sources of funding.

But will support from the state be enough to raise the SCR? Director of Demographic Intelligence Lyman Stone states that fertility tends to increase during and after the war in low-income countries, while in middle-income countries like Ukraine, on the contrary, fertility decreases. And reality confirms this statement of the researcher. 

The authorities realize that with such a rate of population decline, the state will face many problems after the end of the war. Migrants may be the way out. According to the forecasts voiced at Forum on the development and future of human capital of Ukraine until 2032 Ukraine needs to attract up to 4.5 million additional labor force. According to Ella Libanova, in order to rebuild the country and keep the population level at 30 million we need to attract 300 thousand migrants every year . And this means inevitable changes in the cultural landscape of society, which will be a serious challenge for the state.