About 700 thousand Ukrainians will move abroad in two years - NBU

According to the National Bank of Ukraine, the outflow of migrants abroad is expected to continue in 2024-2025. This is reported in the new Inflation Report of the NBU, UNN writes.

Details

"In 2024-2025, the outflow of migrants abroad is expected to continue (about 400 and 300 thousand people, respectively). This assumption has been downgraded compared to the April one," the NBU writes.

The NBU's Inflation Report suggests that the significant disruption of Ukraine's energy system, accompanied by prolonged power outages, increases risks to the heating season. In addition to household inconveniences, frequent outages have a negative impact on production processes, which reduces economic activity and demand for labor, further stimulating migration. The slow normalization of economic conditions due to high security risks will also contribute to migration.

"It is expected that the net return of migrants to Ukraine will begin in 2026 and will be gradual (about 400 thousand people), as the long duration of stay abroad will increase adaptation in a new place, and conditions in Ukraine, including due to power outages, will be more difficult than previously expected," the National Bank notes.

The regulator assures that the number of IDPs will remain significant, as many of them, according to surveys, have nowhere to return to due to the extensive destruction. Negative risks of an even greater outflow of migrants abroad and their later return prevail.

Important factors may include legislative decisions by the governments of recipient countries to integrate Ukrainian migrants and their children more deeply into the educational systems of these countries, which will increase the propensity for family reunification abroad. This will have a negative impact on labor supply and consumer demand, and will hamper GDP growth.

"Significant changes in the structure of the economy and increased demand for skilled labor will lead to further imbalances in the labor market, which will stimulate wage growth above productivity growth in certain sectors. However, the rapid reconstruction of housing and infrastructure and the increase in the number of jobs due to the economic recovery may lead to a more active return of migrants," the NBU added.

Recall

Graduates of Ukrainian educational institutions currently residing in Ukraine or abroad may obtain educational documents through authorized representatives under a notarized power of attorney, without the need to travel to the educational institution.