From tests to mass production: when Ukrainian ballistic missiles will be able to strike Russia

The full-scale war pushed Ukraine to actively develop its own weapons, from unmanned ground and aerial vehicles to missiles. Private Ukrainian companies have already announced preparations for serial production of ballistic missiles. In particular, the company Fire Point plans to complete the codification of the FP-7 missile with a range of up to 300 kilometers by the end of this year. A similar procedure must be undergone by the FP-9 with a declared range of up to 900 kilometers. It is after the completion of certification and codification procedures that serial production of these missiles and their supply to the Armed Forces of Ukraine will begin. UNN looked into how these state procedures take place and what their complexity is.

As it turned out, the path of a ballistic missile to the military is much more complicated than that of strike UAVs. Before a new product is adopted for service, it must undergo state tests, confirm all declared characteristics, and receive certification and codification from the Ministry of Defense.

Certification and codification: what is the difference

Despite the fact that these concepts are often used as synonyms, they refer to two different stages of preparation for the serial production of weapons.

First, the product undergoes testing and evaluation of compliance with declared characteristics. It is at this stage that flight range, hit accuracy, operational reliability, resistance to electronic warfare systems, warhead characteristics, and other parameters are checked. This is the product certification process.

After that, the manufacturer submits documents for codification. This is a procedure during which a product is assigned a NATO stock number (NSN). It is after this that a missile or strike UAV can be adopted for service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine and used in combat conditions.

Aviation expert Bohdan Dolintse in a comment to UNN explained that codification is the final stage of putting a new product into service.

"In general, when talking about certification and codification, it is necessary to understand that this is a certain process of actually putting this type of equipment or weaponry into service. It is carried out by the Ministry of Defense," Dolintse noted.

According to him, Ukraine is already working according to the principles used by NATO countries, and therefore it is sufficient to go through the appropriate procedures at the domestic defense ministry.

Since Ukraine is implementing European and NATO norms and approaches to codification and certification, during this process Ukrainian products actually receive a so-called NATO code, which allows these products to be entered into international NATO databases of weapons and military equipment

According to him, Ukrainian manufacturers do not need to undergo an additional procedure abroad.

"Each country actually carries out this process independently, and this means that Ukrainian manufacturers do not need to undergo any additional codification processes somewhere else. That is, it is enough to go through the Ukrainian processes, and this means that these types of weapons or equipment immediately fall into the general database of military objects that have a NATO code and status," Dolintse explained.

Thus, the full cycle looks like this: missile development, state tests, its codification, and then obtaining permission for operation or its adoption for service.

Who conducts tests and codification

Tests of new weapon samples are carried out by the State Scientific Research Institute for Testing and Certification of Weapons and Military Equipment, at military training grounds by military units designated by the Ministry of Defense.

After the tests are completed, the manufacturer submits to the Ministry of Defense a package of documents containing the results of both laboratory tests and field tests, technical documentation, and confirmation of all declared characteristics.

"The body that makes the final decision on codification is the Ministry of Defense, which receives from the manufacturer the entire package of supporting documents regarding the passage of all checks, obtaining all necessary certificates, laboratory tests, field tests, and directly on this basis makes a decision on assigning a code and putting into service one or another type of weapon or military equipment," Dolintse explained.

According to the aviation expert, the final stage of any codification is checking the product under controlled conditions, that is, the final test.

Why missiles go through a more difficult path than UAVs

The codification procedure depends on the type of weapon.

For UAVs, ground robotic systems, electronic warfare means, and a number of other weapon categories, there is a simplified procedure for passing certification and codification. For ballistic missiles, state control remains much stricter.

As Bohdan Dolintse explains, each type of weapon has its own algorithm for passing codification – it has different stages and requirements for its passage.

At the same time, the expert notes that Ukraine has significantly simplified procedures in recent years.

In Ukraine today, for some types of weapons, primarily unmanned platforms, ground robotic systems, missile weapons, and explosives and ammunition, a so-called simplified procedure has been introduced, which means there is an opportunity to go through the relevant processes of obtaining certification and codification much faster than would be the case under the full regime

He gave an example when Ukrainian manufacturers deliberately codified missiles as strike UAVs to take advantage of simplified procedures and speed up the possibility of serial production.

"We see that in previous years, some missile manufacturers, for example, called their products not missiles, but drone missiles because an accelerated procedure was in effect specifically for drones. In fact, many manufacturers used the prefix 'drone' only to get into the possibility of accelerated codification," Dolintse said.

How long the procedure takes

Despite the fact that the Ministry of Defense has reduced the administrative stage of codification to ten days, the main time is taken by the preparation of documents, conducting tests, and confirming all characteristics. At the same time, in his opinion, the time for passing codification mostly depends on the readiness of the manufacturer himself.

In Ukraine today, we see this cycle shortened usually to a few months, sometimes a little more, depending on the complexity and intricacy of the platform itself

Abroad, this full cycle of weapon codification can take years.

When will serial production of ballistic missiles begin in Ukraine

The company Fire Point plans to complete the codification of the FP-7 ballistic missile with a range of up to 300 km by the end of the year. After that, the long-range ballistic missile FP-9 must undergo a similar procedure.

"We are already certifying our F7 ballistic missile for combat use, and FP-7.x (ballistic interceptor – ed.) as a missile that Denys Shtilerman mentioned yesterday, (it – ed.) is almost ready. We expect the launch of FP-9 by the end of this year," said CEO and CTO of Fire Point  Iryna Terekh during the international arms exhibition Eurosatory-2026 in Paris.

However, as Bohdan Dolintse emphasizes, obtaining  a NATO code is only one of the components for launching serial production. First of all, confirmation of all declared characteristics of the missile is necessary.

"The product must not just be a ballistic missile; it must perform the tasks that are expected, which the customer directly sets before it. That is, it is flight range, hit accuracy, effective warhead mass, the ability to work in certain conditions, including, for example, in conditions of an aggressive electronic warfare system," the expert explains.

The second, no less important factor is the production capabilities of the enterprise. That is, whether the manufacturer is ready to scale up the production of missiles and supply the quantity of such means that the state needs.

Co-founder and chief designer of Fire Point Denys Shtilerman in one of the recent interviews noted that the company is ready for mass production of ballistic missiles. 

The journalist said that Russia produces up to 60 Iskander-M ballistic missiles monthly and asked whether Fire Point can produce more. To which Shtilerman noted: 

"Of course, we can do significantly more."

In addition, he explained that the difficulty of preparing for serial production of the long-range ballistic missile FP-9 lay in the need to build its own plant to cast solid-fuel engines. 

"With the 'nine' (FP-9  - ed.) we had to build our new PCP. This is a plant for casting solid-fuel engines. That is, there is a fairly large weight of this engine, and it all needs to be poured from one mixer. You need to have a large mixer that can fill such a large missile at one time. Now all this has been done, and we are waiting for the first flight in the near future," Shtilerman said.

Obviously, this refers to a plant in Denmark, the opening of which was earlier announced by Iryna Terekh.

"We hope for the opening of the first stage of the plant already in 2026, and the main stage – most likely, already next year. The plant will produce missile engines, that is, rocket fuel, hulls, connecting parts to other parts of the missile," she noted in an interview with Defender Media in March.

And already on June 25, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen reported that Denmark would soon begin producing fuel for Ukrainian Flamingo missiles, which are also manufactured by Fire Point.

Thus, we can conclude that the Ukrainian company has prepared capacities and infrastructure for serial production of ballistic missiles.

Aviation expert Bohdan Dolintse also added that a ballistic missile requires a whole complex – a launch vehicle, equipment for its preparation, use and launch, and trained personnel. Given that the first launch is planned by the end of this year, all this infrastructure is already prepared.

Therefore, the launch of Ukrainian ballistic missiles into serial production depends not only on successful certification and codification, but also on the readiness of the full production cycle. The manufacturer declares readiness for its mass production, so obviously the processes on the part of the state should be completed in the near future. If everything happens as planned, Ukraine could receive a significant strengthening of the long-range capabilities of the Defense Forces and a powerful lever of influence on russia.