EU confident of Orbán U-turn on allowing money to Ukraine, deal could be within weeks - Politico
Kyiv • UNN
Hungary has shown increasing willingness to compromise on the EU's €50 billion funding for Ukraine. Negotiations on potential sweeteners for Hungary are ongoing, and it is hoped that an agreement will be reached in the coming weeks.
Budapest has signaled to the EU that it is ready to drop its opposition to funding for Ukraine - as talks continue on "sweeteners" that would make it easier to remove Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's objections. Although there is still no deal, the EU is confident that it can be concluded within the next few weeks, Politico reports UNN, citing sources.
Details
According to several European diplomats and officials, "Orban is moving closer to accepting a compromise on the use of money from the bloc's budget, even though the deal is likely to fall short of the demands he made after last month's summit.
In December, Orban blocked a four-year, €50 billion funding package for Ukraine, a move he was able to make because it required unanimous support from 27 EU governments.
"But since then, both sides have stepped back from the brink and are now engaged in a delicate dance over how to bring the decision to fruition when Orban and other leaders meet in Brussels on February 1," the newspaper writes.
"Although there is still no agreement on what concessions to offer Hungary in return and what it might accept, the EU is now confident that a deal can be concluded within the next few weeks," the newspaper said, citing diplomats and officials.
As noted, although there was some willingness in Brussels to offer Orban some concessions to reach an agreement, most capitals in the bloc rejected Hungary's attempt to divide funding for Ukraine into annual tranches that would require unanimous approval each year. In practice, this would have given Orban the ability to block EU funding for Ukraine every year or demand concessions from Brussels for overriding his veto.
"It is very unlikely that member states will adopt a decision that will give Hungary the opportunity to blackmail on a regular basis," said one EU diplomat.
Another idea that has been circulating to sweeten the pill for Orban is a mid-term review of funding in 2025. But this option, proposed by Hungary a few months ago, is also considered unacceptable among Kyiv's strongest supporters.
"It would create chaos if we met again in 12 months and unanimously decided whether Ukraine would receive continued funding," said a government official.
They pointed out that this contradicts the logic of the EU's seven-year budget, which is supposed to ensure stability and predictability.
The EU official noted that a potential compromise could include reimbursement by the EU executive to Hungary for interest payments on post-pandemic funds.
The European Commission is also reportedly considering introducing an "emergency brake" that would allow any country that objects to funding for Ukraine to delay payments and propose a discussion at an EU leaders' summit. However, this option would not allow any EU member state to veto disbursements.
Everyone agrees that any final compromise will have to include some concessions from Hungary - enough to allow Orban to claim victory at home.
"In December, he said that no money from the EU budget would go to Ukraine," added one EU diplomat. - "If this happens, how can he say it's a victory?"
The two diplomats emphasized that a second veto on Ukraine's funding could prompt EU capitals to invoke the so-called Article 7 procedure under the EU Treaty to suspend Hungary's voting rights in the European Council.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Orban's top advisers are still trying to find a compromise, the newspaper notes.
