China and Taiwan: a brief history of the "Asian Tigers" conflict and whether it will have an impact on Ukraine and the world
Kyiv • UNN
Last week, China conducted large-scale military exercises near the island of Taiwan. Beijing called it a "severe punishment" for Taipei's "separatist statements." In turn, Taiwan emphasized that such behavior only emphasizes China's "militaristic policy." Read more about the conflict between Taiwan and China, its causes and possible consequences of a possible conflict in the UNN article.
The People's Republic of China recently conducted military exercises around the island of Taiwan. Beijing announced the “Common Sword 2024A” exercise in response to the inaugural speech of Taipei's leader, Lai Ching-te, who won the election this winter. During his speech on Monday, the Taiwanese president said that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are not subordinate to “each other”. In China, this was interpreted as a hint that China and Taiwan are different countries, which contradicts Beijing's position.
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In turn, China, which considers Ching-teh a separatist, condemned his speech. Beijing said that the two-day military exercises in the strait should be “a severe punishment for Taiwan's separatist actions.”
With each provocation of the separatist forces of "Taiwan independence", our countermeasures will advance one step further until the full reunification of the homeland is achieved
During the military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, China conducted operations of the army, navy, air force and missile forces. In addition, the PLA (People's Liberation Army of China) for the first time involved the Coast Guard in military exercises.
The latter's boats were conducting "joint patrolling, rapid response and emergency response capabilities" during the exercise east of Taiwan Island.
At the conclusion of the military exercises, Chinese bombers even carried out simulated attacks on foreign ships near the eastern end of the Bashi Channel, which separates Taiwan from the Philippines. This also involved warships.
According to Taiwan, Chinese aircraft, including Su-30 fighters and modern H-6 bombers carrying nuclear weapons, flew in the straitand in the Bashi Channel. The PRC, on the other hand, did not make any statements about this part of the exercise.
China has also released an official videoprepared with the help of 3D animation, which demonstrates a simulation of missile strikes with the use of aircraft on Taiwan.
In turn, Taiwan has officially condemned Beijing's aggressive behavior and put its naval, air, and land forces on full alert. The Taiwanese Defense Ministry said that such exercises “emphasize China's militaristic mentality.”
Later, on Friday, the ministry announced that 62 Chinese military aircraft and 27 ships were spotted during China's exercises. Previously, 46 planes crossed the "median line" of the Taiwan Strait, which previously served as an unofficial barrier between the two sides.
Despite this, the people of Taiwan are obviously so accustomed to China's constant military exercises that they do not even pay attention to the next act of "show of force." According to Reuters, the locals continue to go about their daily routine, as they see no threat in Beijing's actions.
From childhood to adulthood, we are used to threats (from China - ed.)
According to him, the exercise was a “certain intimidation tactic” and a “demonstration of force” by Beijing to the new leader of Taiwan.
The publication added that while Taiwanese media covered the military exercises, most of their viewers' attention was actually focused on domestic politics.
In particular, at protests against the opposition's attempts to promote legislative reforms, as well as at periodic clashes between lawmakers in the chamber.
What is the conflict between Taipei and Beijing
It is worth explaining that initially it was Taiwan, whose official name is the Republic of China, that was recognized by the world powers. Taiwan was a founding member of the United Nations and one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council. For about 20 years (from 1945 to 1971), Taipei (the capital of Taiwan - ed.) was considered an outpost of legitimate China.
However, today only 12 countries recognize Taiwan's sovereignty, while the rest believe that the island is part of the People's Republic of China, centered in Beijing.
The Republic of China (i.e., present-day Taiwan) lost its seat in the UN after the US-USSR agreement. Taipei was then forced to give way to the PRC, which had previously represented China in fact, not in law.
In fact, since then, the UN and almost the entire international community have officially recognized China's jurisdiction over both mainland China and Taiwan.
But what is the People's Republic of China? The PRC was formed as a result of the Chinese Civil War in 1949. More than 10 years earlier, in 1937, the then-unified China had entered the war against Japan. A few years later, when the Japanese defeat became apparent, political movements in the Republic of China began to struggle for the leadership of the country.
Two currents were formed: the nationalist Kuomintang Party, led by Chiang Kai-shek, and the Communist Party, led by Mao Zedong. The latter captured Beijing in the winter of 1949 and announced the establishment of the People's Republic of China in the fall. In the winter of the same year, after a long struggle, Chiang Kai-shek was forced to leave mainland China and declare Taipei the provisional capital of the Republic of China.
Taiwan, which had the support of its allies and was recognized by many countries, lost the lion's share of its territory. However, after 1971, Taipei lost the recognition of the world's leading countries, and with it the support of its allies. Today, Taiwan, or the Republic of China, is recognized by only 12 countries, but it has diplomatic ties with many countries through its so-called economic and cultural missions, which replace official embassies.
With the death of Kuomintang leader Chiang Kai-shek, Taiwan gave up its territorial claims to mainland China and actually agreed to be part of China. In fact, the normalization of relations has begun.
Therefore, in 1991, Taiwan declared the end of the civil war and adopted constitutional amendments that approved the loss of territories. The following year, the parties agreed on the so-called 1992 Consensus. The document provided for the recognition by both sides of the unity of China, saying that the PRC and Taiwan are not separate states, but one.
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But each side had its own understanding of what a unified China was, so it was written down that “each side sees a different interpretation of a unified China,” meaning that the formula was “one country, two systems.
As a result, Beijing and Taipei have been actively building relations and deepening bilateral cooperation for several decades. Taiwan became known as one of the "Four Asian Tigers" and gained considerable influence not just on China, but on entire economies of many countries around the world.
But in 2016, Taiwan's first female president, Tsai Ing-wen, was elected leader of the country. She is a representative of the Democratic Progressive Party, which advocates the official recognition of the island's independence from mainland Taiwan.
Against the backdrop of its policy of rapprochement with the United States, Xi Jinping has stepped up his militaristic policy. In 2019, he authorized the deployment of US troops on the island and rejected Beijing's proposal for a one-state formula with two systems for possible unification.
Then, accusing China of violating the 1990s agreements, the Taiwanese president said that Taiwan also rejects the 1992 Consensus itself.
Today, Taipei and Beijing are in tense relations. Each country has its own army, constitution, and most importantly, economy as a lever of influence. Influence on the opponent and the world community. And neither country is ready to make concessions.
Why the war between China and Taiwan is important for the world. Will a possible conflict affect Ukraine?
Taipei has a significant impact on the entire global economy. It is in Taiwan that most of the chips that power much of the technology, such as phones, computers, watches, and even simple game consoles, are produced.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), the world's largest microchip company, is owned by Taiwan. And according to Bloomberg ,, , the manufacturers have informally informed their partners that they are ready to remotely shut down chip production machines in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
We are talking, in particular, about the facilities of the Dutch company ASML Holding NV, which, thanks to chips from TSMC, creates chips for artificial intelligence and even for the military.
And although China has a tenfold larger army than Taiwan, such an economic lever in the hands of Taipei could influence Xi Jinping's decision on a possible invasion. In addition, in the event of an aggressive invasion, Beijing may repeat the fate of Russia, which has lost investors, diplomatic ties and is “drowning” in sanctions.
In the run-up to this winter's presidential election in Taiwan, Bloomberg estimated that a war against Taipei would cost $10 trillion, which is about 10% of global GDP. This exceeds the impact of the war in Ukraine, the coronavirus pandemic, and even the global financial crisis.
The publication points out that such economic giants as Apple are dependent on electronics from Asian markets. Analysts believe that in the event of a war, Taiwan's economy will be destroyed and the world's GDP will fall by 10.2%. The economies of South Korea, Japan, and other East Asian countries are likely to suffer the most.
It is worth noting that in this scenario, economists rely on the assumption that the United States will be able to engage its allies in coordinated and severe economic sanctions against China.
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Another option is that China's blockade of Taiwan would cost the global economy approximately $5 trillion.
As Taiwan's Foreign Minister Joseph Wu explained in his column for Foreign Affairs, the value of Taiwan's security is not only economic, but also geostrategic.
Preserving the status quo in the Strait is vital to maintaining the U.S. alliance system, the regional balance of power, and nuclear nonproliferation. These three critical pillars have maintained the stability and prosperity of the Indo-Pacific region for generations, and they would be jeopardized if China gained control of Taiwan
Despite such dubious predictions, against the backdrop of China's recent military exercises, the media reported that Beijing is preparing for a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. In particular, Global Press, citing sources in the Chinese Ministry of Defense and the Xinhua news agency, writes that China plans to invade the island in early June this year.
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It should be noted that this account is rather dubious, as the media outlet does not have its own website, and it has only recently received the blue “flag” indicating its identification. Nevertheless, a number of Ukrainian media outlets have spread this statement.
Chinese military expert Zhang Wu said in a commentary to the Chinese state television company CCTV that the PLA exercises were focused on "practicing the new regime of the blockade of Taiwan".
Taiwan is an isolated island with little self-sufficiency. Taiwan's economy is export-oriented, and most of its energy consumption is dependent on imports. Once under siege and blockade, it could easily come to an economic collapse, turning it into a dead island
Also, Craig Singleton, senior fellow for China at the nonpartisan Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, noted that China's military exercises can be used not only to hone skills but also to lull attention.
These exercises help to blur the lines between peace and war to the point where future exercises can be used as a pretext for a real invasion
