Businesses are more positive about their prospects, predict price increases and wage hikes - NBU
Kyiv • UNN
The NBU survey showed an increase in the business expectations index to 105.8%. Entrepreneurs predict an exchange rate of UAH 45/USD and an increase in labor costs.
Businesses have improved their positive expectations - in the coming year, they anticipate a revival of business activity, while forecasting price increases mainly due to energy costs, and an increase in employee salaries. This is evidenced by the results of the NBU's survey of company executives in the first quarter of this year, writes UNN.
Details
The Business Expectations Index (BEI) rose to 105.8% compared to 102.1% in Q4 2025.
Survey participants improved their assessments of all components of the index. Businesses in 10 surveyed regions and the vast majority of activities among the surveyed executives of 664 enterprises from 21 regions of the country expected a revival of business activity.
On the macroeconomic situation
Respondents predicted an increase in the volume of goods and services produced. The main limiting factors were: military actions and their consequences, a shortage of skilled workers, and excessively high energy prices.
The expected annual inflation in the next 12 months was 11.1%, as in the previous survey. Among the pro-inflationary factors, military actions also led.
The exchange rate expectations of the surveyed entrepreneurs strengthened slightly – to UAH 45.00/USD from UAH 44.27/USD in the previous quarter. For the first time, respondents predicted the hryvnia exchange rate against the euro in 12 months: the average expected value was UAH 54.00/EUR.
On own development
Businesses improved their positive assessments regarding the development of their own enterprises.
The most optimistic were enterprises in transport and communications, as well as other types of activities, while representatives of construction and trade expected the future financial and economic condition of their own enterprises to remain at the current level.
Survey participants more confidently expected an increase in sales volumes, most notably in mining and processing industries, as well as agriculture. Enterprises in energy and water supply were most inclined to increase sales volumes in the foreign market.
High expectations for further price increases for both purchased goods and services and own-produced goods remained. The highest assessments for both price increases for purchased products/services and for own-produced products/services were among construction enterprises.
The main factors influencing the change in selling prices remain the cost of energy, as well as raw materials and supplies.
Respondents expected a more active growth in investment expenditures on machinery, equipment, and inventory, and for the first time in the last four surveys, they had positive expectations regarding investment expenditures on construction work.
Enterprises attracting foreign investments maintained expectations for an increase in their volumes.
For the second time in a row, enterprise executives softened their restrained assessments regarding the future number of employees - respondents were less pessimistic about the size of their staff in the next 12 months. The most optimistic were enterprises in energy and water supply, the most restrained - in agriculture.
Expectations for an increase in labor costs per employee strengthened.
Respondents also increased their assessments of the need for borrowed funds in the near future, almost did not change their plans to take bank loans, and slightly softened their assessments of the stringency of access conditions.