China currently has no plans to invade Taiwan next year but aims to take control of the self-governing island without using force, according to an annual US intelligence report.
China is carefully analyzing the war in Ukraine, weighing the risks before a possible scenario around Taiwan. At the same time, Taiwan itself is actively preparing for defense, adopting Ukrainian experience and building up military capabilities. Andriy Kramarov, a reserve officer of the Ukrainian Air Force and military expert, stated this in a comment for UNN.
China is in no hurry - the "smart monkey" strategy
According to the expert, China does not act impulsively, like Russia, but carefully weighs every step. Its strategy is based on centuries-old philosophy and pragmatism.
China is a very ancient civilization with its own logic of thinking. They have such a parable: what does a monkey do when a tiger and a bear run towards it? It climbs a tree and waits for them to fight each other. They now want to be that "smart monkey" - not to rush into conflict, but to wait
He emphasizes that for Beijing, the key is not victory at any cost, but a balance of losses and gains.
China is very good at counting. They look not only at how to hit the enemy, but how much it will hit them. And this is fundamentally different from Russia's logic
Why China didn't attack Taiwan earlier
According to Kramarov, China already had "ideal moments" for an attack, but did not use them. This once again confirms Beijing's caution.
The best moment was during the change of power in the US. There is always a short "power vacuum" when the system is less effective. But even then, China did not go for it
The reason is the risks of a wider conflict.
China understands that this is not just a war with Taiwan. This is immediately a conflict with the US, Japan, and South Korea. And that's a completely different level
Taiwan is not an easy target, but a fortress
Kramarov emphasizes: in a military sense, Taiwan is one of the most difficult areas for attack in the world. Its geography and defense create serious problems for any aggressor.
Taiwan is actually a large fortress. It is an island, and any amphibious operation will be extremely difficult and costly
Anti-ship defense plays a special role.
They have a very large number of anti-ship systems. For China, this means huge losses even on approach
Taiwan is second in the world for Patriot
Separately, the expert drew attention to the level of air defense of the island. It is one of the highest in the world.
Taiwan is second in the world in terms of the number of Patriot systems after the US. This already speaks volumes about the level of protection
This significantly complicates any air campaign scenario.
Taiwan learns from Ukraine's experience - and receives technology
According to the expert, Taiwan is actively adopting Ukraine's war experience. Moreover, cooperation is bilateral.
Taiwan started learning back in 2022. They are very carefully analyzing our war and implementing these solutions themselves
This is not just about analysis, but also about technological exchange.
They, in fact, in exchange for their technologies - also receive our developments. In particular, marine drones and other solutions
This allows Taiwan to adapt more quickly to modern warfare.
China sees reality and draws conclusions
The expert emphasizes that the war in Ukraine has become an important signal for Beijing. Especially regarding the difficulty of quick victories.
We already see how even strong armies cannot quickly achieve their goals. China is analyzing this very carefully
In addition, the demonstration of force by allies also matters.
During exercises around Taiwan, US, Japanese, and South Korean forces immediately appeared. China clearly saw: this is not one-on-one
Thus, China is not abandoning the scenario with Taiwan, but is approaching it as cautiously as possible, taking into account the risks of a large-scale war.
At the same time, Taiwan itself is actively preparing for defense, using Ukraine's experience and strengthening its capabilities. This makes a potential conflict extremely difficult and costly for Beijing, which is probably what deters it from drastic steps.
China not planning Taiwan invasion in 2027 - US intelligence19.03.26, 11:57