Recent US intelligence reports warn that Iran is unlikely to open the Strait of Hormuz anytime soon, as its control over the world's most vital oil artery is its only real leverage against the United States, according to three sources familiar with the situation, Reuters reports, writes UNN.
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This data suggests that Tehran may continue to restrict movement in the strait to keep energy prices high and thus pressure US President Donald Trump to find a quick exit from the nearly five-week war, which remains unpopular among American voters, the publication writes.
The reports also provide the latest indications that the war, aimed at destroying Iran's military might, may actually strengthen its regional influence by demonstrating Tehran's ability to threaten the key waterway, the publication points out.
Trump has tried to downplay the difficulty of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil trade passes. On Friday, he seemed to hint that he might order American troops to open the strait, the publication notes.
"In a little more time, we can easily open the Strait of Hormuz, take the oil, and make a fortune," he wrote on his Truth Social platform.
However, analysts have long warned that attempting to use force against Iran, which controls one side of the strait, could prove costly and draw the US into a protracted ground war, the publication writes.
"In an attempt to prevent Iran from developing weapons of mass destruction, the US has handed Iran weapons of mass destruction," said Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group, a conflict prevention organization.
Vaez stated that Tehran understands that its ability to influence global energy markets by controlling the strait is "much more powerful than even nuclear weapons."
Trump's position on potential US involvement in reopening the strait has shifted. On the one hand, he made ending Iran's control over the strait a precondition for a ceasefire, but then called on oil-dependent Persian Gulf countries and NATO allies to take the lead in opening it.
A White House official, who wished to remain anonymous, said Trump was "confident the strait will be open very soon" and made it clear that Iran would not be allowed to regulate water traffic after the war.
However, the official noted that Trump also said that other countries "have much more at stake in preventing such an outcome" than the US.
Since the war between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu began on February 28, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is outmatched in weaponry, has used various tactics to make commercial transit through the strait too dangerous or uninsurable.
According to recent intelligence reports, Iran is unlikely to give up this leverage anytime soon, three sources say. They declined to specify which agencies prepared these assessments.
"Certainly, now that Iran has felt its power and influence over the strait, it will not give it up soon," one of the sources said.
Tehran "will try to maintain the leverage they have gained by disrupting traffic" through the strait, former CIA Director Bill Burns said in a Foreign Affairs magazine podcast on Thursday.
He said Iran would try to use its ability to regulate the waterway to gain "long-term deterrence and security guarantees" in any peace deal with the US and "some direct material benefits," such as collecting tolls to fund post-war reconstruction.
"This," he said, "makes for really difficult negotiations now."
UAE ready to join in forceful opening of Strait of Hormuz - WSJ01.04.26, 12:36