Recent U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin may try to test NATO's resolve by launching a limited attack on an allied country over the next few years. CNN reports this, citing three sources, according to UNN.
Details
The intelligence assessments outline several possible scenarios for escalation by Russia, ranging from a cyberattack to a small-scale invasion aimed at undermining NATO unity and commitment to Article 5, which states that an attack on one member is an attack on all, without necessarily crossing the threshold for a response from the allies, the sources said.
Although the question of how and when Putin might do this remains open, one source said he is most likely to escalate the situation in some way by targeting the Baltic states or Poland. The latest assessments were first reported by The Wall Street Journal.
According to the sources, U.S. and NATO officials believe that Putin may choose to escalate against NATO if he fails to secure a "face-saving" outcome in the war with Ukraine, noting that the window for the Russian dictator to choose his next steps extends from now through the next few years.
Martin O'Donnell, a senior NATO military official, declined to comment on classified intelligence assessments but said that NATO "is always considering and preparing for various scenarios."
"NATO is watching, and we are ready to deter and defend as necessary, which we continue to demonstrate," he added.
We would add
Over the past several years, there have been many instances of Russia encroaching on NATO territory. In May, a drone carrying explosives crashed into an apartment building in Romania when Russian forces attacked the nearest Ukrainian port, injuring two people. And in September last year, NATO fighter jets shot down several Russian drones that violated Polish airspace during an attack on Ukraine.
And literally this week, the United States concluded that a drone carrying explosives found at a German airport on Wednesday night belonged to Russian intelligence, a U.S. Department of Defense official in Europe told CNN. According to the official, the drone was carrying military-grade explosives; CNN previously reported that it had been discovered by an airport employee in a secured cargo area.
"Drone surveillance, threats from drones, including in a hybrid context, are something we know from the past," German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt told reporters on Wednesday. "The fact that a drone armed with explosives is at an airport is a new threat scenario."
On Thursday, Dobrindt suggested that the drone could be linked to "foreign states," although he did not elaborate.
On Friday, Germany's National Security Council, chaired by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, met to discuss the airport incident.
The intelligence assessments concerning Russia's plans also emerged amid growing concerns about significant depletion of U.S. ammunition stocks during the war against Iran and an increase in civilian casualties from Russia's long-range weapons.
CNN previously reported that nearly 80% of THAAD interceptor missiles — a key missile defense system — had been expended during the war compared with prewar levels, as well as approximately half of the Patriot interceptor missiles. Meanwhile, the United Nations said that the number of civilian casualties from Russian long-range missiles increased by 60% between January and June compared with the same period last year.