European Union officials are discussing alarming scenarios of possible actions by US President Donald Trump, including a complete curtailment of US support for Ukraine, the US withdrawal from European defense, and the start of a large-scale trade war. Official Brussels fears that Trump will combine these strategic issues into a single instrument of pressure, forcing Europe to make painful concessions. This is reported by the Financial Times, writes UNN.
Details
According to the publication, "European governments are preparing for negotiations with US President Donald Trump with high stakes that will put the continent's defense, economy and security at stake."
"Major plans to build an "independent Europe" have been suspended as officials try to maintain Trump's support during five weeks of critical negotiations on Ukraine, transatlantic trade and US security commitments to NATO," the publication said.
But they are reportedly becoming increasingly concerned that the US president "will demand concessions in one area in exchange for support in another, forcing the EU to sacrifice its core values or agree to a final break with Washington."
"All these crises at the same time: it's a perfect storm. He might try to squeeze us and corner us on all three sides. He could say to us, "If you don't offer me a good trade deal, we won't support Ukraine." Or: "If you force me to support Ukraine, then we will, for example, increase our demands on you to increase your military spending on NATO," said Josep Borrell, the former EU chief diplomat who retired in November.
EU officials discussed worst-case scenarios in all three aspects
"Senior EU officials have discussed worst-case scenarios in all three aspects," the publication notes,
They, according to FT, include:
- a complete suspension of US support for Ukraine;
- cessation of intelligence and prevention of the supply of weapons purchased in the US by European countries;
- a full-scale trade war with devastating consequences for economic growth;
- rapid withdrawal of American troops and military capabilities from Europe.
"It's turned from best-case scenarios to damage control. When it comes to trade, defense and Ukraine, the choice is between a bad outcome and a very bad outcome," said one senior EU official.
Addition
Trump will first meet with European leaders at the G7 summit in Canada in 11 days, where officials expect the US president to talk about his support for Ukraine and a plan of sanctions against Russia.
European capitals want Trump to pledge continued support for Kyiv, but fear he wants a peace deal that will leave Ukraine and the rest of Europe vulnerable to future Russian aggression, the publication added.
A week later, NATO leaders will gather in The Hague, and European capitals hope that their pledges to increase defense spending will convince Trump to maintain US support for European defense and deter him from cutting troop deployments and weapons.
The next day, EU leaders will gather for a summit in Brussels, knowing that they have less than two weeks to agree on a trade deal with Trump to avoid 50 percent tariffs that could devastate the continent's economy.
"We see Ukraine, European defense and trade as separate issues, but for Trump... he just sees the same faces asking him different annoying questions. He's not going to treat them differently in different contexts," said a senior EU diplomat.