The National Bank of Ukraine expects that the number of Ukrainians abroad will increase by 200,000 people, including men aged 18 to 22. However, the possible departure of men aged 18-22 will not lead to a significant change in the available workforce and will not create critical risks for the economy. This was stated by the First Deputy Governor of the NBU, Serhiy Nikolaichuk, as reported by UNN.
Details
If we talk about migration trends, by and large, we have not revised our assumptions from the July forecast. As before, we expect that the number of Ukrainians abroad will increase by 200,000 people. Of course, some of them will be young people aged 18-22. This factor will not lead to a significant change in the available workforce, and accordingly will not lead to significant negative effects on the labor market.
He noted that according to the Institute of Demography, there are about 800,000 men aged 18 to 22 in Ukraine, of whom about 300,000 are employed, which is about 2% of the total workforce.
Perhaps some of them may go abroad, and we have certain facts, available information about this... at the same time, according to the results of the survey, we see that in some sectors this factor is significant, but if we look at the entire economy, in principle, it does not affect the cumulative figures.
Recall
The National Bank of Ukraine revised its forecast for Ukraine's economic growth downwards - from 2.1% to 1.9%. The main reasons are the energy deficit caused by Russian shelling and the shelling of the gas production system.