Russia is strengthening control over internal political processes in Belarus, seeking to minimize the risks of unforeseen changes in the regime and its foreign policy course, reports UNN with reference to the Foreign Intelligence Service.
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As the Latvian Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB) notes, the platform for this is the Union State, where the actions of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs are actively coordinated and integration programs are implemented. Moscow is increasingly sharply reacting even to minimal attempts by Minsk to pursue a more independent policy, in particular to restore economic contacts with Europe, which automatically reduces Russian influence.
According to SAB estimates, a change of power in Belarus without coordination with the Kremlin is considered a threat, so Moscow seeks to ensure the structural dependence of the next leader on a pro-Russian course. Despite the lack of direct control over Lukashenka's policy, both sides are trying to avoid a repeat of the 2020 protests. Russia will block any steps by Minsk towards rapprochement with the EU if they contradict its interests.
The economic cooperation between the two regimes is increasingly taking on a military character. About 500 Belarusian enterprises are integrated into the Russian military production, including a drone factory project with a capacity of up to 100,000 units per year. Belarus annually supplies about 480,000 artillery and missile ammunition for Russian systems.
SAB emphasizes that the war against Ukraine has confirmed: the civilian economy of Belarus actually works for Moscow's military needs, allowing the regime to avoid direct participation in hostilities, but to receive economic benefits. In the future, Minsk's role in Russia's military-industrial plans will only grow.