Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has won the parliamentary elections, maintaining a majority in parliament. The voting results became another piece of evidence of the gradual weakening of Russia's influence in a country that for decades was considered one of Moscow's key allies in the South Caucasus, UNN reports.
Pashinyan retained power
According to preliminary results, the "Civil Contract" party led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan gained about 50% of the vote and maintained its parliamentary majority. At the same time, pro-Russian political forces, despite an active campaign, were unable to seize the initiative and form an alternative coalition.
Pashinyan himself called the voting results a "historic victory" and announced his intention to continue the course toward a peaceful settlement of relations with neighbors and the development of cooperation with Western partners.
Another blow to the Kremlin's positions
These elections can be compared to a test of Russia's influence in Armenia. After the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023, a significant part of Armenian society became disillusioned with Moscow, which formally remained Yerevan's ally but effectively did not prevent the Azerbaijani operation in the region.
In recent years, Pashinyan's government has consistently reduced security dependence on Russia, suspended the country's participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and intensified contacts with the European Union and the United States.
Elections as a geopolitical referendum
The current elections were a de facto referendum on Armenia's foreign policy course. The main struggle took place between forces advocating for rapprochement with the West and the pro-Russian opposition, which called for the restoration of close relations with Moscow.
Despite the significant result of the pro-Russian "Strong Armenia" bloc, which took second place, the majority of voters supported the course of the current government. This allows Pashinyan to continue the policy of normalizing relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey, as well as deepening cooperation with the EU.
What this means for the region
Pashinyan's victory does not mean a complete break between Armenia and Russia, as the country remains economically linked to Moscow. However, the election results demonstrate that the Kremlin is gradually losing political influence in a state it long considered its sphere of influence.
Maintaining Armenia's pro-European course could strengthen the West's positions in the South Caucasus and serve as another signal of the weakening of Russian positions in the region against the backdrop of the war against Ukraine.
From Armenia to Syria: how the Kremlin's influence has weakened in recent years
Looking specifically at the Kremlin's geopolitical influence, over the last four years, Vladimir Putin has lost or significantly weakened his positions in several regions at once. Nikol Pashinyan's victory in the Armenian elections became just another episode in this process.
Syria
In December 2024, the regime of Bashar al-Assad fell, which for over ten years had been maintained largely thanks to Russian military support. For Moscow, this became one of the most painful foreign policy blows of recent years. Russia maintained a certain military presence, but its influence in Syria has significantly decreased.
South Caucasus
In addition to Armenia, the Kremlin has lost its status as the main arbiter between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The peace process is increasingly taking place with the participation of the US, EU, and Turkey, rather than Russia.
Moldova
After the 2024 presidential elections and the subsequent course toward European integration, Moscow's influence in Moldova continued to diminish. Despite active support for pro-Russian forces, Chisinau maintained its pro-European course and began the negotiation process for EU accession.
Kazakhstan
After the events of January 2022, Russia helped stabilize the situation through the CSTO; however, subsequently, Astana began to distance itself from Moscow more actively. Kazakhstan did not recognize the annexation of Ukrainian territories, expanded cooperation with China, Turkey, and the West, and conducts a much more independent policy.
Central Asia in general
Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are increasingly cooperating with China, Turkey, the EU, and the US. While ten years ago Russia was the undisputed center of gravity for the region, it has now become just one of several players.
Africa
After the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin and the transformation of the Wagner structure, Russia maintained influence in a number of African countries, but no longer possesses the flexibility and speed of advancing interests it had in 2018–2023. Moreover, the Ukrainian army is actively operating on the African continent.
Ukraine
Putin's main strategic failure. In February 2022, the Kremlin expected to quickly establish control over Ukraine or change the government in Kyiv.
Instead, Ukraine maintained its independence, received large-scale Western support, and EU accession and future NATO membership have become much more realistic prospects.
What remains under Moscow's influence
Despite the losses, Putin still holds strong positions in Belarus, maintains a military presence in parts of the Caucasus, and has significant leverage in the Middle East.
But comparing the situation in 2026 with the beginning of 2022, the main trend is obvious – the war against Ukraine did not expand Russian influence, but on the contrary, forced the Kremlin to spend resources on maintaining positions in those regions that were previously considered Moscow's unconditional sphere of influence.