The G7 summit changed Trump's perception of the war, but negotiations are still far off - expert
Kyiv • UNN
Political scientist Fesenko stated that at the G7 summit, they managed to convince Trump that Russia will not win the war, but a final U.S. shift toward Ukraine has not yet occurred. There are still no real preconditions for peace negotiations, although attempts to resume dialogue may begin in the near future.
The G7 summit demonstrated certain changes in US President Donald Trump's attitude toward the Russian-Ukrainian war, but it is still too early to talk about a final Washington pivot toward Kyiv. At the same time, the preconditions for resuming the negotiation process are gradually taking shape, although the parties are not yet ready for real peace talks. This opinion was expressed in an exclusive commentary to UNN by political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko.
On the results of the G7 summit and the change in Trump's position
The political scientist notes that one of the main outcomes of the G7 summit was a change in Donald Trump's perception of the war. At the same time, according to the expert, it is still premature to conclude that the US president has fully sided with Ukraine.
"I would not rush to conclusions that we have finally managed to pull Trump over to our side. But thanks to the efforts of Macron and other European partners, we managed to convince him that Russia will not win the war and that Ukraine is capable of effectively resisting. At this point, such a result has been achieved, but with Trump one can never be sure in the long term. This work needs to be continued constantly,"
Preconditions for negotiations are only being formed
In recent days, both European politicians and some representatives of the Russian side have begun to talk about the possibility of negotiations. However, Fesenko is convinced that it is still too early to talk about real peace talks.
"Unfortunately, I do not see real preconditions for starting genuine peace negotiations right now. Yes, a chance for their resumption may appear, but one must distinguish between the negotiation process and real talks on ending the war. Attempts to resume dialogue may begin in the near future, but this does not yet mean a search for compromises between the parties,"
Putin will not negotiate immediately after strikes on Moscow
According to the expert, one should not count on the Kremlin immediately agreeing to negotiations after successful Ukrainian strikes on the Russian capital.
"Putin will not start negotiations under pressure or immediately after strikes on Moscow. That is not his style. That is why one should not live in illusions and expect quick results after every successful Ukrainian operation. Changing his position requires a prolonged influence and an accumulation of pressure factors,"
Only systemic problems can force the Kremlin to negotiate
Fesenko believes that individual strikes will not be decisive. Instead, only a prolonged deterioration of the situation inside Russia can yield results.
"If current trends continue, if problems with fuel or logistics become systemic, if Russians begin to feel the consequences of the war themselves, then preconditions for negotiations may appear. But this will not happen immediately. First, there will be closed consultations, informal contacts, and only then a possible official negotiation process,"
Local agreements could be the first step
The political scientist is skeptical about the scenario of a quick full ceasefire. Instead, he considers a gradual approach more realistic.
"Most likely, initially it could be about a sectoral ceasefire. For example, refraining from strikes on energy infrastructure, stopping attacks at sea or on large cities. Only after that could more large-scale agreements appear. I do not rule out the option of a complete cessation of hostilities on certain sections of the front, but I am quite skeptical about it,"
Parity is the main precondition for peace
Fesenko emphasizes that neither side will agree to serious compromises if it is convinced of its own military superiority.
"One of the main preconditions for real negotiations is parity. When neither side has an obvious advantage and cannot achieve decisive success on the battlefield. If one side believes it is winning the war, it will not negotiate peace. It will only talk about the enemy's capitulation,"
Ukraine should not live in illusions about a quick victory
Commenting on the current situation at the front and successful Ukrainian strikes on Russian targets, the expert urged avoiding excessive optimism.
"I do not share the opinion that a turning point in the war has already occurred. Yes, there are positive trends for Ukraine. But thinking that just a little more and we will win the war means wishful thinking. In recent years, we have repeatedly seen how the balance of power has changed and how quickly the parties have adapted to new technologies and new conditions of war,"
The main goal of Ukrainian strikes is to force Russia to negotiate
According to Fesenko, Ukraine's current strategy is aimed not at a military victory in the short term, but at creating conditions for a political settlement.
"The goal of the current strikes on Russian logistics, refineries, and military facilities is not to win the war tomorrow. Their main goal is to force Russia into real peace negotiations. This is exactly what President Zelenskyy is talking about. To achieve this, it is necessary to create more and more problems for the Kremlin and gradually change its calculations regarding the continuation of the war,"