Russia continues to lose influence in Central Asia amid the region's reorientation towards the West - intelligence
Kyiv • UNN
Central Asian countries are cooperating more actively with the EU, the US and China, which reduces Russia's influence in the region. Intelligence reports diversification of foreign policy ties.
The countries of Central Asia are increasingly diversifying their foreign policy and economic ties, strengthening cooperation with the European Union, the United States, and China. Against this backdrop, Russia's influence in the region is weakening, and its role as a key partner is gradually diminishing. This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service, writes UNN.
The countries of Central Asia – former Soviet republics – have begun actively seeking alternatives to cooperation with the Russians. It is not yet a complete reversal in relations, but the unreliability of a sanctioned partner with imperial ambitions and an aggressive foreign policy is forcing the region to seek support from more reliable and predictable players, including among Europeans
Kazakhstan, following a meeting between President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and EU leaders, emphasized the leading role of Europeans in trade and investment. Separately, the parties noted the strategic importance of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route and welcomed the expansion of cooperation within the framework of the global European initiative Global Gateway. European Council President Antonio Costa called Kazakhstan a "key link" in ensuring transport connectivity in the region.
At the end of May, Kyrgyzstan announced its removal from the EU's aviation safety "blacklist," where it had been since 2006. Earlier, the country signed an agreement to purchase Airbus A321neo aircraft.
Turkmenistan is conducting active negotiations on supplying energy resources to the EU bypassing the Russian Federation. This concerns the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline. This project fits perfectly into today's US foreign policy agenda, in particular the "Trump route," which is intended to connect Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia.
At the end of last year, Tajikistan's President Emomali Rahmon, without coordination with Moscow, replaced the rector of the Russian-Tajik (Slavonic) University. The Kremlin regarded such actions as an "unfriendly step" and halted funding for the project. And already this year, Tajikistan is moving to a Ukrainian level of interaction: consultations were held in Dushanbe with the participation of deputy foreign ministers of both countries. The parties worked out prospects for cooperation in trade, education, science, and culture. At first glance, this is a protocol meeting within the framework of diplomatic services. But until recently, Tajikistan was considered one of Russia's closest allies in Central Asia (second after Belarus).
Uzbekistan is also constantly increasing cooperation with the EU. "The European Union is one of Uzbekistan's key strategic partners, and cooperation with it continues to develop dynamically. Bilateral trade has almost doubled, increasing from $3.2 billion in 2018 to $6.9 billion in 2025. An important factor in this growth was Uzbekistan's accession to the GSP+ regime, which significantly expanded access for Uzbek products to the EU market," characterized the relations by Akbar Aliyev, Deputy Minister of Investments, Industry and Trade of Uzbekistan.
The United States and China are actively developing their business projects in the Central Asian region. Moreover, Beijing holds over $36 billion in direct investments here. And amid all this diversity, Russia is heard about less and less.
Moscow is still trying to play a great power game in Central Asia – with targeted "handouts" meant to preserve at least some influence in the post-Soviet space. Another example: the Russian Federation plans to allocate 413 million rubles to Tajikistan for the fight against drugs in 2026–2028. This sounds impressive only until you convert it into dollars – it comes out to just over $5 million. That is how much the Kremlin is willing to spend to counter the Taliban's multi-billion dollar drug industry. The result is predictable: Moscow's voice in the region is weakening every day, and its "influence" increasingly resembles a ritual for domestic consumption