Economist Oleksandr Okhrimenko shared his forecast for the dollar exchange rate for 2025, UNN reports.
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According to him, there is a high probability that the exchange rate will reach 45 hryvnia to the dollar by the end of the year.
At the moment, we are witnessing a gradual devaluation of the hryvnia, and it is likely to continue throughout 2025. Thus, the exchange rate of UAH 45 per dollar is a realistic scenario for the end of the year
However, Okhrimenko also emphasized that in certain periods, revaluation may occur and fluctuations in the foreign exchange market may occur.
"There may be a temporary return to the rate of about 41 hryvnia to the dollar, but the rate will not return to the level of 36 hryvnia to the dollar," he explained.
At the same time, the economist emphasized Ukraine's strong foreign exchange reserves.
"As of today, the country's foreign exchange reserves reach almost $44 billion. This is a record figure in the history of Ukraine. This allows the National Bank to intervene and restrain a significant devaluation," Okhrimenko added.
Thus, according to the expert, the hryvnia exchange rate will remain under pressure, but the country's strong reserves will be able to stabilize the situation on the foreign exchange market.
Add
Financial expert and co-founder of Ukraine's first fintech ecosystem Concord Fintech Solutions Olena Sosedka predicts that the hryvnia exchange rate to the dollar will be 45-47 hryvnias in 2025.
According to her, the value of the currency will be affected by the following factors: military operations, reduced exports, and the continued growth of production costs.
In addition, business closures and the tax burden will increase pressure on the hryvnia. Olena Sosiedka reminded that, according to official data, about 162 thousand individual entrepreneurs closed their businesses in Ukraine in 2023. In 2024, the number of sole proprietors who ceased their activities reached 210 thousand, which was a record high in recent years.
"Mass closure of businesses reduces tax revenues to the budget and decreases business activity," emphasized Olena Sosedka.
According to the financial expert, despite the difficult economic situation, the assistance of international financial organizations can play an important role in stabilizing the economy.
Recall
Earlier, Olena Sosiedka said in a commentary to UNN that the dollar is likely to continue to rise by the end of the year. In general, by 2025, according to the expert, the dollar price may increase by about 2 hryvnias, to 42-43 hryvnias per dollar.