The hostilities in the Middle East have already caused a sharp increase in global oil prices, with Iran already threatening oil at $200 per barrel. Against this background, fuel prices in Ukraine have risen. UNN investigated how much fuel prices in Ukraine could rise with a further increase in oil prices.
Oil price
After the start of hostilities in the Middle East, world oil prices rose sharply, even reaching $100 per barrel. For example, on February 28, when the US and Israel attacked Iran, the price of Brent oil rose from $73 per barrel to $79 per barrel, and on March 9, it reached $100 per barrel. As of today, March 11, the price of Brent oil is $90.52 per barrel.
Also today, three ships were damaged by unknown projectiles near the Strait of Hormuz. Israel and Iran exchanged massive strikes, affecting residential areas of Tehran, and a spokesman for the Hatam al-Anbiya military command headquarters in Tehran stated that Iran "will never allow a single liter of oil to pass through the Strait of Hormuz for the benefit of the United States, Zionists, or their partners."
"Any vessel or any oil cargo belonging to the United States, the Israeli regime, or their hostile partners will be considered a legitimate target," his statement said. "We will pursue a strike-for-strike policy until you are fully punished and regret your actions. Be prepared for a barrel of oil to cost $200, because the price of oil depends on regional security, which you have destabilized."
Fuel cost in Ukraine
After the rise in oil prices, fuel prices in Ukraine began to rise. In particular, if at the end of February the price of a liter of A-95 gasoline was on average 66.6 hryvnias, then as of the morning of Wednesday, March 11, the price of A-95 had already reached 72.6.
In a comment to UNN, the head of the Naftotrade Podillya group of companies noted that fuel prices depend not only on oil prices but also on many different factors.
It is difficult to calculate, because the premium is also formed. The formation of prices in Ukraine depends directly on foreign traders. For example, the same Orlen. There are general reports on quotations. These are Argus or Platz. In Eastern European countries, it is Platz. Accordingly, they agree that the price will be formed from Cif Med, or Cif Med High. That is the first agreement. Then comes the premium. The premium is, for example, 70 dollars per ton added. In this formula, you know that your premium is 70 dollars, and the price will be formed depending on how oil is traded on the world market.
He notes that if before the war in Iran, for example, the premium was 65 dollars for one of the bases in Romania, today it has reached 115 dollars.
That is, it began to depend on demand. Due to the increased demand, diesel supplies decreased. Accordingly, if quotations were taken on average for three days, that is, let's take the numbers - 100, 150, 200 dollars, and the average will be 150 dollars, now the high for the previous day is taken. That is, 200 dollars were traded today, tomorrow the price will be 200 dollars plus that premium.
According to him, the second nuance is that everything in Ukraine is tied to the dollar and euro exchange rates.
Foreign contracts are usually in dollars. Accordingly, if the exchange rate rises, we will pay at a higher rate. And the euro affects the excise tax. Therefore, pricing is affected by - the dollar exchange rate, the euro exchange rate of the National Bank at the time of import, quotations, the same changes in the premium, which today the trader said was 115 dollars, and tomorrow he may say: "Sorry, it's already 150 dollars." That is, to calculate the price of fuel... some proportion - it's unrealistic. I heard a phrase that if the price per barrel of oil is 100 dollars, then the price of diesel will be 100 hryvnias, then with today's premiums, this will not happen. Why? Because there was a moment when the price of oil was 115 dollars, then it began to fall to 110 dollars, and ICE Gasoil quotations were 1380 dollars, and also began to decline, then the maximum price was 81 hryvnias. Again, it was from morning to lunch, and after lunch it began to decline and became 76 hryvnias. That is, if oil is 150 dollars, then I think the price will be 100 hryvnias. If it is 115-120 dollars per barrel of oil - it will be around 80-85 hryvnias. But, again, everything depends on the external market.
Fuel demand rose to 140% - AMC named factors for price increase11.03.26, 13:47 • [views_3074]