Russia's military leadership provides unreliable data on the successes of its army at the front. In this way, the Kremlin tries to convince Western countries of an inevitable victory over Ukraine, although in reality this is not the case.
This is reported by UNN with reference to the analytical report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
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It is noted that the Kremlin has launched a coordinated information campaign, demonstrating military might on the battlefield, to influence the Western point of view and falsely position Russian victory as inevitable.
In the summary, ISW analysts refer to the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov, who stated on August 30 that Russian troops have captured 3,500 square kilometers of territory and 149 settlements since March 2025.
The general also claimed that since March, in the north of Sumy Oblast alone, Russian forces had captured 210 square kilometers and 13 settlements, and Russian troops control 99.7% of Luhansk, 79% of Donetsk, 76% of Kherson, and 74% of Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
In addition, according to Gerasimov, since March 2025, the Russian army has captured about 50% of Kupyansk and 10 settlements in the Lyman direction: Myrny, Katerynivka, Novomykhailivka, Nove, Lypove, Ridkodub, Hrekivka, Zelena Dolyna, Kolodiazi, and Serednie.
Gerasimov stated that since March 2025, Russian troops have captured five settlements in the Velykomykhailivka direction: Maliivka, Novogeorgiivka, Voronnia, Sichneve, and Zaporizhzhia
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War emphasized that Valery Gerasimov significantly exaggerates data on the successes of the Russian army at the front.
According to ISW, Russian troops have captured only about 2,346 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory and 130 settlements since March 1, 2025. Thus, the Russian general significantly overstates Russian gains by approximately 1,200 square kilometers and 19 settlements.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War also reported that Russian troops captured 212 square kilometers in the north of Sumy Oblast, but control only nine settlements in that area. At the same time, the Russian army captured approximately 99.7% of Luhansk, 76.7% of Donetsk, 73.2% of Kherson, and 73% of Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
In addition, according to experts, the Russian military captured only 6.3% of Kupyansk and does not fully control the settlements of Myrny, Novomykhailivka, Ridkodub, Hrekivka, Kolodiazi, Serednie, Vorone, Sichneve, or Kamyshivakha.
The Institute drew attention to the fact that Gerasimov is not the only high-ranking Russian military official who has made loud statements about the advance of Russian troops in recent days.
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov similarly stated on August 29 that Russian troops are currently capturing 600 to 700 square kilometers per month, but ISW estimates that Russian troops advanced only 440-500 kilometers per month in June, July, and August.
Analysts suggest that these statements by Russian officials indicate an attempt by the Russian leadership to influence decision-making in the West, creating a false impression that the Russian army's offensive and victory are inevitable.
In particular, the Kremlin is apparently trying to use a large amount of data to create a false impression that Russian troops are rapidly advancing on the battlefield.
Moscow is trying to convince the West that Russia will inevitably achieve its military goals, and therefore Ukraine must make concessions to Russian demands, and the West must accordingly stop supporting it.
Analysts noted that the Kremlin's presentation of statistics on territorial gains does not take into account the significant losses suffered by the Russian army, as well as the gradual and slow nature of the advance - creating an incomplete picture of Russia's effectiveness on the battlefield.
According to the Russian Inheritance Register (RNS), cited by Russian opposition publications Meduza and Mediazona, at least 93,000 Russian servicemen died in 2024, almost twice as many as in 2023 (about 50,000).
The publications used a predictive model to estimate and calculated that at least 56,000 Russian military personnel had died since the beginning of 2025.
At the same time, the media noted that the RNS data is imperfect for determining Russian losses, as relatives of the deceased have at least 180 days to open an inheritance case for deceased or missing Russian servicemen. Therefore, the data for the last six months (from approximately February 2025) are critically incomplete.
Meduza and Mediazona also reported that by mid-2025, the number of inheritance cases had increased to 2,000 per week.
According to media reports, in the second half of 2024, there was a sharp increase in the number of court cases in Russia regarding the recognition of missing persons as deceased. In particular, this refers to missing Russian servicemen whom the court recognized as killed in action.
Russian publications found that since mid-2024, the number of cases of missing persons in the Inheritance Register has increased only among men, not women. According to the publications, this phenomenon can only be explained by the increasing death rate in the war.
ISW continues to assess that such high losses for Russia are unsustainable in the medium and long term. Russia's advance for many months remains mostly gradual and creeping, and the pace of the offensive is extremely slow by the standards of modern mechanized warfare.
Russian troops have suffered particularly heavy losses since the winter of 2024, and these losses are occurring with disproportionately insignificant territorial gains.
Experts noted that Russian troops use light motorized vehicles (buggies, ATVs, and motorcycles) and infiltration tactics to advance at the front, but their speed of advance still does not exceed the pace of foot movement.
In addition, according to analysts, Russian forces have also failed to consolidate and exploit their breakthroughs, including the recent penetration east and northeast of the town of Dobropillia in Donetsk Oblast.
ISW emphasized that any assessment of the combat effectiveness and strength of the Russian army on the battlefield must take into account both the pace of advance and the losses incurred to achieve these gains.
"The Kremlin's presentation of presumably inflated statistics on territorial gains without critical context of losses for these gains is likely an attempt to manipulate perceptions of the Russian army's military effectiveness. It is also an attempt to reinforce the long-standing Kremlin thesis that Russia's victory on the battlefield is inevitable. In reality, this is not the case," ISW analysts summarized.