Russia shipped the largest amount of oil in a month and a half, while a surge in prices pushed the value of these cargoes to almost the highest level since the beginning of the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. But the benefits for the Kremlin are offset by its ban on diesel fuel sales abroad. Bloomberg reports this, UNN writes.
Details
In the four weeks through September 27, overseas oil shipments rose to 3.71 million barrels per day, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. This is the highest figure since early August.
At the same time, average prices for the key Urals and ESPO grades reached their highest level in more than three months amid disruptions to oil supplies from Saudi Arabia caused by repairs to a key oil pipeline that was attacked at the beginning of the month.
Oil prices rise amid risks of supply disruptions from the Middle East29.09.26, 08:46
Russia, the publication writes, "is reaping the benefits of tensions in the Middle East, as increased oil supplies combined with rising oil prices replenish Moscow's war chest" for the Russian Federation's war against Ukraine. The inflow over the past four weeks was slightly below the record set in early May, the publication writes.
However, proceeds from oil sales are only part of the story and are likely to be partially offset by a decline in oil-product supplies, the publication notes. Although Russia raised its forecast for oil exports in 2026 by approximately 150,000 barrels per day, it reduced its forecast for oil-product supplies by approximately 500,000 barrels per day.
Drone strikes continue to disable Russian oil refineries. This is forcing Moscow to redirect for export oil that cannot be refined domestically, increasing supply volumes, the publication writes. However, shortages of key fuel types forced the Kremlin to suspend overseas sales of most diesel fuel, which had averaged about 1 million barrels per day before the intensification of the strikes. The ban is expected to be extended through October.
Russian oil shipments
In the week through September 27, about 37 tankers loaded 27.9 million barrels of Russian oil, according to vessel-tracking data and reports from port agents. This compares with 24.99 million barrels on 32 vessels the previous week.
Loading operations in Novorossiysk have resumed, but some tankers are spending considerably more time at the berths than usual, according to satellite images obtained by Bloomberg.
Weekly shipments can be volatile, affected by weather, maintenance, sanctions, military activity, and departure times.
One shipment of Kazakh oil of the Kebco grade was made from Novorossiysk during the week. This month, Moscow redirected all Kazakh oil shipments through the Black Sea port, freeing up more capacity for its own supplies at Ust-Luga on the Baltic, which is considered safer, the publication writes.
The volume of Russian oil aboard vessels increased again last week, reflecting the rise in shipments. Vessels carrying Arctic oil to China usually transfer their cargoes to other vessels. These transfers typically take place east of Singapore from vessels bound through the Red Sea, and near Nakhodka or Zarubino for vessels traveling via the Northern Sea Route. Most Sokol cargoes are also transferred, usually in Kozmino Bay. These loadings can cause delays, increasing the amount of oil at sea.
Export value
Over the four-week average, Moscow's gross export value rose to $2.39 billion per week in the 28 days through September 27, which was $290 million per week more than in the period through September 20 and the highest figure since the period through May 24. The increase was driven by a combination of higher prices for Russia's main oil grades and a moderate increase in shipment volumes, the publication indicates.
On a weekly basis, the value of exports jumped by approximately $180 million, with the increase in supply more than offsetting the decline in prices for Urals crude, which converged with global benchmarks. The weekly value stood at $2.75 billion, the highest figure since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Supply by destination
"China and India remain by far the largest buyers of Russian oil," the publication writes. However, it is not always possible to determine the final destination of individual cargoes until they have traveled a significant part of the route, so many of the latest tanker shipments, listed with intermediate destinations such as Suez or Port Sudan, are marked as "Unknown Asia."
The volume of Russian oil supplies to Asian buyers, including those without a final destination, increased to 3.61 million barrels per day in the 28 days to September 27, compared with 3.4 million barrels for the corresponding period to September 20.
This has not happened since 1982: U.S. oil reserves have fallen to a new low29.09.26, 10:39