Russia and Belarus have likely abandoned attempts to use the "Zapad-2025" exercises to support "nuclear saber-rattling" operations against Western countries – at least temporarily. This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), as reported by UNN.
Details
Analysts indicate that Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin stated in early August that the "Zapad-2025" exercises would focus on the use of nuclear weapons and Oreshnik missiles in response to the militarization of Belarus's western and northern borders and as part of strategic deterrence.
However, Belarusian officials have significantly softened their rhetoric in recent days, possibly in response to rising tensions with NATO over the incursion of Russian drones into Polish airspace on September 9-10. Belarusian Security Council Secretary Lieutenant General Alexander Volfovich stated on September 12 that the "Zapad-2025" exercises are "purely defensive in nature" and that their goal is "to work out issues related to ensuring the military security of the Union State."
Also, according to Volfovich, Russia and Belarus moved the exercises "deep into" Belarus, "far from state borders," with Belarusian military officials informing the West about their plans for the exercises. In turn, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that the "Zapad-2025" exercises "are not directed against anyone," but Russia and Belarus need to practice force integration.
"These statements are a notable departure from previous comments before the 'Zapad-2025' exercises. ... Russia is not seeking nuclear escalation, and Russia's use of nuclear weapons remains unlikely. Russia and Belarus may believe that 'nuclear saber-rattling' efforts would be unwise due to NATO's reaction to the drone incursions on September 9-10," analysts conclude.
Recall
On September 12, Russia and Belarus began joint strategic military exercises "Zapad-2025". The training "combat operations" are taking place amid escalating tensions with NATO after Russian drones entered Polish airspace.