To deter and win future wars, the United States must be able to seize the initiative in the fight against any adversary it has to fight; wars are rarely won with "reactive" approaches. This is stated in an analytical material by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), UNN reports.
Details
It is noted that Russia is moving towards prolonging and expanding the current war: as long as the Kremlin feels it has the initiative, it has little reason to concede its goals in Ukraine, reduce intensified attacks against NATO, or limit its cognitive warfare offensive on US decision-making.
The US must seize the initiative in Ukraine, Europe, and the cognitive space to change Russia's current trajectory towards a longer and larger war. Only by seizing the initiative can the US impose its will on Russia or any opponent.
They point out that Russia is fighting "with its hands untied" due to the West's decision to provide it with "effective safe havens" by limiting the range and capabilities of systems provided to Ukraine, and a policy of gradual changes that gives the Kremlin time to adapt.
Russia has been allowed to build up its defense industrial base with the help of China, Iran, North Korea, and to safely store its manpower and materiel in the rear – often as a result of restrictive Western policies ostensibly aimed at avoiding "escalation."
They are convinced that the United States and its partners can change this dynamic by changing their approach: no single measure will provide a decisive advantage over Russia, but achieving momentum through a continuous series of actions can.
Pressure on Russia must shift from a trickle to a waterfall, from linear incremental changes to a pressure campaign that generates massive, rapid, and cascading effects. The Kremlin's strategy, unlike ours (the US - ed.), recognizes Russia's vulnerability to momentum. The Kremlin's main effort is to ensure that we never think about seizing the initiative against Russia: that we discuss tactics, not strategy; focus on reactive countermeasures, not proactive and sustained campaigns; and deploy individual measures, not massive effects.
They summarize that alternating "carrot and stick" against Russia in the hope that the Kremlin will come to the negotiating table is a form of gradualism and will have the same effect as previous policies – it will prolong Russia's will and ability to fight.
"A linear combination of diplomatic, informational, military, and economic pressure against Russia is necessary but insufficient against Russia's complex system of intentions and capabilities to wage wars," ISW added.
Recall
Last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that "demilitarization and denazification" of Ukraine are mandatory conditions for ending the war. The Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine called these words confirmation that Russia's goal is to destroy Ukrainian statehood.