Over the past year, the West has failed to convince Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to reconsider his theory of victory in Ukraine. Putin's public statements indicate that he continues to believe that Russian forces will be able to win a war of attrition by continuing to advance steadily along the front line indefinitely.
This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), reports UNN.
Details
Analysts note that Putin formulated a theory of victory during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in June 2024, which assumes that Russian forces will be able to continue to advance gradually indefinitely, prevent Ukraine from conducting successful operationally significant counteroffensive operations, and win a war of attrition against Ukrainian forces.
Putin's assessment that gradual Russian gains will allow the Russian Federation to achieve its goals in Ukraine is based on the assumption that Ukrainian forces will not be able to liberate any significant territory occupied by Russian forces, and that the Russian military will be able to sustain offensive operations that achieve gradual tactical gains, despite heavy losses.
Putin's discussions with foreign media at SPIEF on June 19, 2025, showed that Putin still adheres to this theory of victory, as he did a year ago. Putin claimed that Russian forces have a "strategic advantage" on all sectors of the front. Putin claimed that Russian forces are advancing daily along the entire front line, and that even if Russian forces advance less on some days, they are "still advancing."
Putin also claimed that "the situation has changed" since the Ukrainian-Russian negotiations in Istanbul in March 2022, and that the conditions proposed by Russia in 2022 are "much milder" than the conditions Russia demands today.
Additionally, Putin threatened that the situation for Ukraine could worsen if Ukraine does not make significant concessions and agree to a peace settlement on Russia's terms, and urged Ukraine's partners to "point to the current realities" to push Ukraine towards a settlement. Putin reiterated that the Kremlin is prepared to achieve its military objectives by military means if it fails to achieve these objectives diplomatically.
The Russian dictator has repeatedly stated that the Russian Federation's military objectives include regime change in Ukraine, the establishment of a pro-Kremlin puppet government in Kyiv, significant limitations on Ukraine's ability to defend itself against future Russian aggression, Ukraine's neutrality, and NATO's abandonment of its open-door policy.
Addendum
Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Andriy Sybiha emphasized the need for pressure on Russia to achieve a ceasefire, which would open the way for further, broad negotiations, noting that economic and military pressure must be increased.