The actual exchange rate of the hryvnia at the end of 2025 turned out to be significantly stronger than the forecasts of banks and investment companies, which casts doubt on the pessimistic exchange rate expectations of the government for 2026. The exchange rate laid down in the 2026 budget under today's conditions indicates that government officials are most likely simply playing it safe and setting a much more pessimistic exchange rate than it should actually be. Ihor Harbaruk, Vice President of the "Ukrainian International Institute of Recovery" and expert of the "Economic Discussion Club" public union, told UNN about this in a comment.
Details
"According to the consensus forecast for the end of 2025, the dollar exchange rate was expected to be 45.35 hryvnias per 1 dollar. Banks and investment companies determined the exchange rate corridor within 44.5-46 hryvnias per 1 dollar. Today, in fact, we have an average dollar purchase rate of 41.8 hryvnias, and a sale rate of 42.27 hryvnias - accordingly, the forecast did not work," Harbaruk said.
He noted that the exchange rate laid down in the 2026 budget under today's conditions indicates that government officials are most likely simply playing it safe and setting a much more pessimistic exchange rate than it should actually be.
"By the way, this is quite dangerous - because it once again creates a situation where the actual exchange rate will be lower, and budget revenues were calculated at a much higher exchange rate and, accordingly, it will get new holes in the second half of the year - most likely, in the autumn. In this case, special attention should be paid to the planned tax revenues from exporters and customs payments (with a lower exchange rate, they will actually be lower), as well as to the correlation with foreign exchange revenues from international programs, which will be converted into hryvnia, and to the profits we expect to receive from the sale of government securities in case of their acquisition by foreigners," Harbaruk adds.
According to him, accordingly:
- the weaker the hryvnia – the more revenues there will be;
- the stronger – the less;
- with a deliberately overstated planned estimated exchange rate of the currency against the hryvnia, there is a risk of non-fulfillment of the budget in terms of revenues.
"Support from European partners has sufficiently stabilized the situation, and today there are no clear prerequisites that would indicate that inflationary processes could have such negative consequences. The only thing that can be said is that we are in a state of war, its 4th year is ending. Therefore, during active military operations, as well as with their possible significant escalation, analytical forecasts may undergo significant correction," the economist summarized.
US dollar set for biggest annual drop since 2017 - Reuters24.12.25, 14:50 • [views_2922]
Recall
Fintech expert, co-founder of Concord Fintech Solutions Olena Sosedka predicts that, provided current funding rates and controlled inflation are maintained, fluctuations in the average annual exchange rate in 2026 can be expected in the range of 46-48 hryvnias per dollar. During peak periods of payments and delays in tranches of international financial assistance, according to her, short-term drawdowns to 49 hryvnias are possible, but there are no grounds for going beyond 50 hryvnias per dollar today.
Regarding the euro, the fintech expert believes that fluctuations will be even more dependent on the behavior of the dollar and the monetary policy of the European Central Bank.
"The average euro exchange rate will be within 49-52 hryvnias. However, it should be understood that if Europe continues the cycle of interest rate hikes, the pressure on the hryvnia from this currency will increase," Olena Sosedka noted.
According to the fintech expert, the main financial risks next year remain inflationary pressure, a record deficit, and high dependence of the budget on external injections. Olena Sosedka advises businesses to include increased volatility of the foreign exchange market in their plans and to focus on conservative scenarios.