Iran's statements about assistance from Russia and China in the war against the US and Israel may be part of a political game and a signal to deter the West. At the same time, direct military intervention by these states in the conflict is currently unlikely. Stanislav Zhelikhovsky, an international expert and candidate of political sciences, stated this in an interview with UNN.
Iran's statements could be a signal to the US and its allies
After the start of a new escalation in the Middle East, Iranian officials stated that Russia and China are allegedly helping Tehran in its confrontation with the US and Israel. According to the expert, such statements are primarily political in nature.
They may be aimed at demonstrating that Iran will not be left alone in the event of a further expansion of the conflict.
First of all, it is important to understand that Iran's statements about support from Russia and China may be a political signal aimed at deterring the United States and its allies. The Iranian authorities are trying to demonstrate that in the event of further escalation of the conflict, the country will not be completely isolated. It has partners among states that have serious economic, military, and political potential
According to the expert, this does not necessarily mean direct military intervention.
Support can take various forms. This can be the transfer of intelligence, technology, components for weapons, economic aid, or political support in the international arena. Even such elements can significantly affect the course of the conflict
Russia has a strategic partnership with Iran
Zhelikhovsky emphasizes that relations between Moscow and Tehran have significantly strengthened since the beginning of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine.
It was then that military-technical cooperation between the two countries intensified.
We know that Russia and Iran have a strategic partnership, which has particularly strengthened since the beginning of Russia's full-scale aggression against Ukraine. Moscow received drones, certain technologies, and assistance in the field of armaments from Tehran. Therefore, it is quite logical to assume now that Russia may support Iran in return
At the same time, he emphasizes that such support is unlikely to be large-scale.
It is unlikely that we will see direct military intervention by Russia. Moscow is already waging war against Ukraine and has limited resources. Opening another major front would be extremely risky for it
The Kremlin is trying not to spoil relations with the Trump administration
Another factor restraining Russia, the expert calls political relations with the United States.
According to him, the Kremlin is trying to use the situation for its own diplomatic game.
Russia understands that direct intervention on Iran's side would mean a complete break in relations with the United States. And now the Kremlin is trying to use relations with Donald Trump's administration for its own interests
Zhelikhovsky adds that Moscow may use the Iran factor as a tool for political bargaining.
Russia may demonstrate its readiness to support Iran in order to strengthen its position in negotiations with the United States. The signal could be: if there are no concessions on sanctions or other issues, Moscow may increase aid to Tehran
China is trying to act much more cautiously
As Zhelikhovsky notes, China's position in this conflict looks much more restrained than Russia's.
Beijing has large economic interests in the Middle East, so it is not interested in a large-scale war.
China acts much more cautiously. Beijing has large economic interests in the region and seeks to position itself as a diplomatic mediator. That is why it tries to avoid direct military aid to Iran
He explains that open support for Tehran could lead to a serious confrontation with the United States.
If China starts openly supplying weapons to Iran, it could lead to a serious conflict with the United States and jeopardize Beijing's economic interests. And for China, this is an extremely important factor
Beijing may provide indirect support
At the same time, the expert does not rule out that China may help Iran in indirect ways.
This primarily concerns informational and economic support.
This could be the transfer of certain information, intelligence data, economic aid, or political support in international organizations. China can act very carefully so as not to formally upset the balance in relations with the United States
He also draws attention to the fact that Beijing is currently preparing for possible contacts with Washington.
There is information about a possible visit of Donald Trump to China. If the conflict in the Middle East escalates and the US starts accusing China of supporting Iran, it could disrupt these plans
Trump may start looking for culprits
According to Zhelikhovsky, the further rhetoric of the US president will depend on the development of the war. If the conflict drags on, Trump may start blaming other countries for his difficulties.
If the war drags on and the result is not quick, Trump will start looking for culprits. And then it is quite possible that direct accusations against Russia or China will appear in his rhetoric
For now, according to him, the situation looks different.
Now we see a rather strange situation: Trump criticizes NATO allies more often than Russia or China. But this may change depending on how events unfold
NATO is not obliged to fight in the Middle East
The expert also commented on Trump's statements regarding NATO allies, whom he accused of insufficient support.
According to Zhelikhovsky, such claims have no legal basis.
NATO is primarily a political alliance. Armed forces are provided by individual member states, and each state independently decides whether to participate in a particular operation. Therefore, there can be no automatic involvement of NATO in the war in the Middle East
According to him, many European countries are not ready to participate in such a conflict.
For example, Germany has already stated that it will not enter the war. Poland is also not in a hurry with such decisions, because for it, the issue of security on NATO's eastern flank and Russia's war against Ukraine remains key
Personal factor in the relations between Trump and Zelenskyy
Zhelikhovsky also drew attention to the personal factor in the relations between Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. When China and Russia clearly indicate that they are opponents of the United States, this may open a certain window of opportunity for Ukraine, but Trump's rhetoric contradicts logic.
There has been some tension in relations between Trump and Zelenskyy since Trump's first presidential term. Then we saw political scandals related to the impeachment procedure, and Zelenskyy's name was also mentioned there
The expert believes that some of Trump's statements regarding Ukraine may have a political or even populist character.
Often, such statements are aimed at the domestic audience in the United States or are an element of political PR. But they do not always mean a change in Washington's strategic policy towards Ukraine
In conclusion, the expert notes that the situation around the war in the Middle East is gradually going beyond the regional conflict. Even limited support for Iran from states such as Russia or China can significantly affect the balance of power and complicate the rapid end of hostilities.
According to Zhelikhovsky, these countries are currently trying to act cautiously, without crossing the line of direct military intervention. At the same time, they can use the conflict to strengthen their geopolitical positions and pressure the United States.
We see that the conflict in the Middle East is gradually turning into a broader geopolitical confrontation. Russia and China can use the situation to strengthen their own positions in the world and to pressure the United States. But at the same time, these states are trying not to cross the line after which the conflict can escalate into a direct clash of major powers
He adds that the further development of events will largely depend on the duration of the war and the reaction of the international community.
If the conflict drags on, we may see a gradual expansion of the circle of states that will be drawn into it — politically, economically, or even militarily. And then it will no longer be just a Middle Eastern war, but part of a global geopolitical confrontation