The EU is developing an unprecedented plan that could grant Ukraine partial membership in the bloc as early as next year. Politico has learned 5 steps of this plan, writes UNN.
Details
"Where there's a will, there's a way - that's the spirit guiding European Union officials as they finalize a plan for Ukraine to join the bloc by the end of next year. If successful, it would lead to a lightning-fast accession process unprecedented in the union's history," the publication states.
The publication learned how an accelerated process for Ukraine's EU membership could take shape, according to EU diplomats and officials working on the project.
"It boils down to a fitting definition: 'reverse enlargement' - a new way of joining the EU that turns traditions upside down. The club would first grant membership with limited privileges, and then gradually upgrade that membership as Ukraine implements reforms approved by Brussels," the publication says.
"The reason why the EU is willing to consider abandoning its overly cautious approach to accession is clear: the urgent geopolitical context. Kyiv is under pressure to make more painful concessions in peace talks with Russia, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy needs a 'spoonful of sugar' to help his people accept these concessions. EU membership - Kyiv's goal since the Maidan of 2014 - is a reward that will need to be obtained not in five or ten years, but in 2027, Zelenskyy says," the publication writes.
Asked why the timing of Ukraine's accession is so important, Zelenskyy told reporters in Kyiv on Friday: "Because the date will be signed by Ukraine, Europe, the US, and Russia."
The publication points out: typically, EU accession is a labyrinthine process involving six clusters, each containing several chapters on issues ranging from agriculture to foreign policy and judicial reform. EU countries must unanimously agree to close each cluster before a country's membership application can proceed. This explains the very long wait for some countries: North Macedonia has been a candidate since 2005; Turkey, whose application is currently suspended, has been waiting even longer.
"A decade-long timeline would be meaningless for Ukraine, given the context of Russia's invasion. That's why the EU is working to revise the process, allowing for an accelerated timeline that could apply to Ukraine - and, potentially, Moldova and Albania. An EU official... stated that there is nothing in the EU treaties that would prevent a country from moving quickly towards membership, provided it is done by unanimous decision," the publication states.
At the same time, it is noted that "unanimity of support among EU members is one of the potential obstacles, given Budapest's opposition to Ukraine's membership." Pro-Russian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has put preventing Ukraine's EU accession at the center of his re-election platform ahead of national elections in April. He stated last weekend that "Ukraine is our enemy" because Kyiv insists on banning Russian energy imports to Europe.
"The EU can circumvent Orbán in several ways," the publication writes.
Brussels, it is noted, could wait for the national elections in April 2026 and hope that the prime minister loses to his rival Péter Magyar, who would take a different approach to Ukraine. If Orbán wins, leaders could try to enlist US President Donald Trump to overturn the veto, the publication indicates.
"If all else fails, the EU could invoke Article 7 - a last resort that could block Hungary's ability to obstruct Ukraine's membership application. Capitals have so far resisted attempts to apply Article 7 and ruled it out ahead of Hungary's elections. But an Orbán victory would require desperate measures," the publication states.
The publication notes that Ukraine's EU membership is now at the center of a complex peace process involving Moscow, Washington, and Kyiv. "If this is included in any peace agreement, the membership application by 2027 could become too big to fail. This does not guarantee success when it comes to the EU. But it does create a powerful incentive to force the bloc to do what is uncharacteristic of it: think outside the box," the publication emphasizes.
5 steps for Ukraine's EU accession in 2027
Citing 10 officials and diplomats, the publication reports that the EU is developing an unprecedented plan that could grant Ukraine partial membership in the bloc as early as next year, as Brussels seeks to strengthen the country's position in Europe and distance it from Moscow.
"This early-stage idea would mark a radical shift in how the bloc engages new countries. The plan envisions Ukraine getting a seat at the EU negotiating table before implementing the reforms needed to gain full membership privileges," the publication writes.
Based on conversations with five diplomats representing different countries, and three EU officials and two Ukrainian officials who were granted anonymity to discuss confidential negotiations they are familiar with, the publication identified five steps of the plan.
Step 1: Prepare Ukraine
The EU is "frontloading" Ukraine's membership application. This involves providing Kyiv with informal recommendations for negotiating "clusters" - legal steps towards membership.
The bloc has already provided Ukraine with detailed information on three of the six negotiating clusters. At an informal meeting of European affairs ministers in Cyprus in March, the EU wants to provide the Ukrainian delegation, which will also visit the country, with detailed information on the other clusters so that work on them can also begin, the publication writes.
"Despite the most difficult circumstances, amidst ongoing Russian aggression, Ukraine is accelerating its reform efforts," said Marilena Raouna, Deputy Minister for European Affairs of Cyprus, which holds the EU Council presidency. She said the March 3 meeting would aim to reaffirm this support.
But "there will be no shortcuts in reforms," an EU official said. This message was echoed by two senior diplomats from countries that are strong supporters of Ukraine, and all EU officials interviewed by the publication.
"EU membership only brings benefits if you go through a transformation through the enlargement process - that's the real superpower of EU membership," one official said. "The European Commission needs to reconcile these two things: the need to act quickly, and the need for reforms in Ukraine."
For its part, Kyiv says it is ready to do the necessary work. "We will be technically ready by 2027," Zelenskyy said on Friday. "You are talking about the end of the war and simultaneous security guarantees. And the EU for us is security guarantees."
Ukraine will be "technically" ready to join the EU in 2027 - Zelenskyy30.01.26, 11:23 • [views_5847]
Step 2: Create simplified EU membership
EU governments questioned European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen about efforts to break the deadlock on bringing new countries into the bloc at a meeting in Brussels on Friday, according to diplomats who participated in the discussion or were briefed on its content.
She outlined various options and models the EU is considering, they said. Among them was the idea of "reverse enlargement."
"This would be a kind of recalibration of the process - you join, and then you are gradually granted rights and obligations," said an EU official familiar with the content of the discussion. "So there will be a rethinking of how we carry out accession, based on a completely different situation we have now, compared to when the European Commission set the accession criteria."
The idea is not to lower the bar, but to create a politically powerful message for countries whose accession is delayed by war or resistance from capitals like Budapest - not just Ukraine, but also Moldova and Albania, among others, the publication writes.
"It's important to send a political message," an EU diplomat said. "The war of aggression has been going on for four years. Ukrainians need support. The EU must provide that support, politically and psychologically."
While Zelenskyy has previously stated that Ukraine would not agree to a second-tier EU status, it may be open to something that codifies the country's path to the EU before it becomes a full member of the bloc, said an official familiar with Ukraine's thinking.
This idea has its opponents in the EU. "In principle, one cannot discuss two categories of member states," an EU official said. "This would be unfair not only to Ukraine, but also to the European project. The message should be to accelerate reforms."
Germany, in particular, opposes the idea of creating multiple levels of EU membership and fears that countries that join the bloc before they are ready will be promised things that Brussels cannot deliver, according to a senior diplomat. However, there is hope that if other influential EU players, such as Paris, Rome, and Warsaw, support the initiative, Berlin can be persuaded.
Step 3: Wait for Orbán to leave
A challenge for Ukraine's membership prospects, the publication writes, is engaging all 27 member states, as any decision on enlarging the bloc requires unanimous support. Orbán, Putin's closest ally in the EU, is strongly opposed.
But the European Commission and EU capitals are focused on Hungary's elections in April, and are also working on ways to circumvent Orbán's veto.
None of the officials interviewed by the publication said they believed Orbán would change his mind before the elections. The Hungarian prime minister's antipathy towards Kyiv is "strong," one senior EU diplomat said. "It's a personal matter between Orbán and Zelenskyy. It's more than a strategic or tactical game."
Several EU officials said they hoped that if Orbán loses the elections, his rival Péter Magyar, the conservative leader of the opposition Tisza party, might change his stance on Ukraine, given that he promised last year to put the issue to a referendum.
But if Orbán is re-elected, that will be the fourth step, the publication writes.
Step 4: Play the Trump card
While Orbán's opposition to Ukraine's EU accession seems unwavering, there is one person whom European leaders believe could change his mind: Donald Trump.
"With Ukraine's EU accession by 2027 outlined in a draft 20-point proposal to end the war, there is hope that Trump could call Budapest to strike a deal," the publication states.
Zelenskyy hinted at this hope on Friday. According to the peace proposal, the US "commits to being a guarantor that no one will block" elements of the agreement, he said. "We are talking about whether the United States of America will cooperate with some European structures politically so that they do not block."
The Trump administration previously pressured Orbán during negotiations on EU sanctions packages against Moscow, an EU diplomat said.
Step 5: If all else fails, strip Hungary of its voting rights
If Trump's "art of the deal" fails, the EU has another card to play: bringing Article 7 of the EU treaty back to the negotiating table against Hungary, according to two EU diplomats.
Article 7, which applies when a country is deemed to be at risk of violating the bloc's fundamental values, is the most serious political sanction the EU can impose, as it suspends a member's rights, including rights regarding the admission of new countries.
The EU has so far been unwilling to exert this pressure, suggesting it would play into Orbán's hands ahead of his April elections. But capitals are assessing support for using this tool if Orbán is re-elected and continues to obstruct EU decision-making. Such a move is "absolutely possible," a third diplomat said.