The publicly announced volumes of purchases by China's central bank this year have been so low. But according to analysts, the total volume of purchases of the immutable asset could be many times higher, due to the goal of diversifying away from the US dollar.
UNN writes with reference to the Financial Times.
Details
China's unofficial gold purchases could be 10 times higher than official figures, as the country seeks to diversify its assets away from the US dollar. China is doing this covertly, but this fact is revealed by opaque sources of demand behind the record rise in gold prices.
Officially declared purchase volumes by China's central bank this year were too low:
- 1.9 tons in August;
- 1.9 tons in July;
- 2.2 tons in June.
Few in the market believe the official figures, FT notes, citing data from Société Générale, which estimated that China's total purchases in 2025 could reach 250 tons. This is more than a third of the total global demand from central banks.
The scale of undeclared purchases made by China underscores the growing challenges faced by traders. The latter are trying to figure out where prices will move next in the market. Among the existing facts is also that the market is increasingly dominated by central bank purchases.
"China is buying gold as part of its de-dollarization strategy," said Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, who says he doesn't try to guess how much gold the People's Bank of China is buying.
"Unlike oil, where you can track it with satellites, with gold you can't. There's just no way to know where these things are going and who's buying them."
Traders say they are turning to alternative data sources to gauge demand, such as orders for freshly cast 400-ounce bars with sequential serial numbers, typically refined in Switzerland or South Africa, shipped via London, and flown to China, to get evidence of the country's purchases.
Recall
Gold prices rose to a three-week high on expectations of rising US national debt and the release of economic data. Spot price rose 0.9% to $4235.56 per ounce, and gold futures rose 0.6% to $4240.10 per ounce.
China's Ministry of Commerce suspended restrictions on the export of antimony, gallium, and germanium to the United States until November 27, 2026. These metals are necessary for semiconductor production and were previously banned from export starting in December 2024.