At the beginning of the year, businesses lowered their assessments of business activity, which was influenced by seasonality, intensified Russian attacks on energy and logistics, and a shortage of energy resources, but the level of expectations is higher than a year ago, according to the results of the National Bank's survey of enterprises in January, UNN writes.
Details
In January 2026, the index of business activity expectations (IBEA), as indicated, was 41.3 compared to 49.2 in December 2025, but was slightly higher than the level of January 2025 (41.0).
"Respondents from all sectors, except industry, had better expectations regarding the results of their current activities than a year ago," the National Bank noted.
The dynamics of assessments, in addition to seasonality, according to the NBU, were constrained by:
- intensified attacks on energy and logistics infrastructure;
- shortage of energy resources;
- increase in production costs for alternative power sources;
- logistics problems;
- shortage of qualified specialists;
- strengthening exchange rate expectations.
At the same time, positive factors, as indicated, remained the receipt of international financial assistance and the slowdown in inflation.
What's happening by industry
Industrial enterprises assessed the results of their current activities more cautiously than in the previous month, "given the large-scale destruction of production facilities, high costs for their restoration, as well as the lack of electricity and qualified workers." They continued to expect a decrease in the volume of manufactured products, new orders for products, including export orders, work in progress, and were also настроены to reduce stocks of raw materials and materials. Unlike the previous month, assessments of finished product inventories worsened.
Construction enterprises assessed the results of their current activities most cautiously among the surveyed sectors, given the difficult weather conditions and increased production costs due to power outages. They expected a decrease in construction volumes, procurement of raw materials and materials, and significantly weakened assessments of the volume of new orders. Expectations regarding the availability of contractors softened, regarding the cost of their services remained high, regarding the volume of procurement of contractor services were at the level of the previous month.
After ten months of positive expectations, trade enterprises significantly weakened their assessments of their current activities due to the traditional decline in economic activity in the first month of the year and the electricity deficit. Trade companies expected a decrease in turnover, the volume of procurement of goods for sale, and their inventories. As before, respondents were настроены to reduce trade margins.
Enterprises in the service sector significantly lowered their assessments of economic prospects, given the increase in business costs for wages and heating, complications in logistics, as well as the need for energy resources and labor. Unlike the previous month, respondents expected a decrease in the volume of services provided, new orders for services, and services in progress.
As indicated, against the background of the expected acceleration in the growth rate of procurement prices, respondents from all sectors expected a further increase in prices/tariffs for their own products/services.
It is also noted that the situation in the labor market is unstable. Unlike the previous month, enterprise managers in all sectors were настроены to reduce the total number of employees, most significantly in industry.