Ukraine warns of a possible loss of up to 25 million tonnes of grain for export next year
Kyiv • UNN
Due to the losses, the sown area could decrease by 6.3 million hectares, and the harvest by 24–25 million tonnes. Losses could reach $7.4 billion.
The reduction in the acreage that Ukrainian farmers may be able to cultivate next year amid declining profits caused by the impact of Russian strikes on logistics could exceed 6 million hectares next year, potentially resulting in a 24–25 million-tonne decrease in grain production and a corresponding reduction in exports. Agriculture and Food Minister Taras Vysotskyi stated this during a televised national marathon on November 13, UNN reports.
Details
"As of today, this risk is real, because due to the lack of full-fledged exports, there are insufficient funds to operate at full capacity. At present, a scenario is indeed being considered in which the sown area could decrease by 6.3 million hectares in the spring. This is a significant area," Vysotskyi said, commenting on the likelihood that one-third of the fields might not be sown next spring.
According to the minister, "such volumes do not pose a threat to the domestic market, because we export 70%".
"But such a scenario means a significant reduction in revenues for Ukrainian farmers and for the Ukrainian economy. However, it should be remembered that this also means a reduction in exports—that is, a deterioration in international balances, because 24–25 million tonnes of grain could have been grown on this area, which would have been exported primarily to foreign markets," the head of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy said.
According to him, "we are currently working through a negative, pessimistic scenario, since there is currently no confirmation that it will be possible to unblock the deep-water ports." "Accordingly, we are working under a pessimistic scenario in conditions of no access to deep-water ports until the next marketing year (until July 2027—ed.). What does this mean for our sector? Unfortunately, it means major losses. In fact, the failure to receive foreign-currency earnings due to the inability to sell the products will amount to at least $5 billion. It should also be understood that the current logistics used by agricultural producers through alternative routes is more expensive, costing at least an additional $200 million per month, and will accordingly result in additional annual losses of $2.4 billion," the minister said.
According to him, Ukrainian farmers have grown a "good harvest" this year, but "for operations to continue, exports are critically important, and the blockade of the ports is currently causing very significant losses".
"We are now beginning international communication" in order to jointly find "a certain solution" for the agricultural sector, Vysotskyi stressed.
Supplement
On November 12, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy stated that, according to estimates, if the operation of the Black Sea ports remains restricted for an extended period, the total additional losses to the agricultural sector could amount to up to $7.5 billion over a marketing year.