The imbalance of exports and imports in Ukraine for the first time reached 3 30 billion. What will happen to the course

In Ukraine, there is a significant imbalance between exports and imports, to equalize which the National Bank has chosen a strategy of soft devaluation of the hryvnia. Therefore, sharp jumps in the exchange rate should not be expected. This opinion was expressed in an exclusive comment to UNN by economic expert Oleg Getman.

We receive 3 30-35-40 billion annually. and this is more than enough to enter the interbank market and smooth out any fluctuations. Therefore, there are no unexpected jumps and you should not count on it

He noted that due to the fact that the exchange rate is not in free floating, but in manageable flexibility, the National Bank will try to adhere to the dollar price laid down in the state budget – 42 Hryvnia per 1 dollar. Therefore, it is possible that at the end of the year the price of the US currency will be in this range.

At the same time, the expert noted that there are several factors that affect the foreign exchange market.

What factors influence it? The main one is the NBU, all other factors are just small things compared to the NBU, which enters the interbank market and, in principle, smooths out all fluctuations - it can change trends in one direction or another just in one day

The economic expert added that the regulator understands the current situation, and that the country has a large imbalance between exports and imports, the trade balance is deeply negative. According to Hetman, the National Bank has chosen a strategy of gradual, slow and very soft devaluation of the hryvnia in order to restore the balance between exports and imports. 

In our country, it (the imbalance – ED.) has reached significant figures - the annual gap is about 3 30 billion, this has never happened before. The topic of gradual devaluation will help increase exports, gradually reduce imports and try to achieve such a balance

Another significant factor affecting the foreign exchange market, according to Hetman, is international assistance. If it is in sufficient volumes, as planned for this year, then there will be no unexpected jumps, according to his forecasts. 

Add

Earlier, the co-founder of the first fintech ecosystem in Ukraine, Concord Fintech Solutions, Olena Sosedka, in an exclusive interview with UNN , did not rule out that by the end of the Year the price per dollar may rise to 44 hryvnias. according to her, the main factors affecting the foreign exchange market are the foreign economic, political and military situation in our country. In addition, the exchange rate will largely depend on the ability of Ukrainian producers to export their goods.

Recall

The neighbor previously noted that the future of the Ukrainian banking system is the object of active discussion among economists and officials. One of the strategies for the development of the system is to concentrate bank capital and privatize state-owned banks. It should be understood that the banking system does not exist by itself - it is "a litmus test of the level of economic development of the country and the trends that are cultivated in it." Therefore, now among the important issues facing the banking system, the expert noted ensuring clear and uniform rules of operation of the banking sector, for example, effective monitoring of banking transactions and other important conditions for the development of the industry.

In general, Olena Sosedka believes that the Ukrainian banking sector needs changes, especially when implementing the Open Banking 2025 concept, which is a completely new role model for our market. At the same time, these issues relate not only to legal, but also to technical aspects, for example, common standards and ways to control technical processes. In particular, this is important for the implementation of the same open banking concept approved by the National Bank of Ukraine.