The attack on Crocus City Hall was the result of a serious failure of Russian intelligence - ISW
Kyiv • UNN
The Institute for the Study of War says the attack on Crocus City Hall in Moscow was likely carried out by ISIS, not Ukraine, and was the result of a major Russian intelligence failure.
Insistence on trying to accuse Ukraine of involvement in the attack on Crocus City Hall "could damage Russia's internal security and the lives of civilians," the Institute for the Study of Warwrites . Analysts of the American think tank, pointing to open-source data, are convinced that the attack on Crocus City Hall was the result of a serious failure of Russian intelligence, reports UNN.
Details
ISW argues that the attack on Crocus City Hall in the Moscow region, and the nature of the claims that followed it, "is very much in line with the way ISIL behaves and claims such incidents, and has found no evidence that Ukraine was involved in the attack". At the same time, available evidence from open sources indicates that the attack on Crocus City Hall was the result of a serious failure of Russian intelligence, rather than a plot initiated by or targeting Russian intelligence, the US think tank wrote.
ISW warns that "the continued insistence of Kremlin officials and Russian ultranationalists blaming Ukraine for an attack likely carried out by ISIL could damage Russia's internal security and civilian lives.
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Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War recalled that the U.S. warned russia of "fairly specific" signs that ISIL wanted to carry out terrorist attacks in russia, and the U.S. embassy in russia warned on March 7 that it was "monitoring reports of extremist plans to attack mass gatherings in Moscow, including concerts, over the next 24 hours. However, Putin, as ISW emphasizes, called these warnings "provocative statements.
Russian intelligence may well have chosen to ignore the U.S. intelligence warning because of the extreme distrust of the United States that Putin has driven deeply into the Russian information and security space. Russian authorities may also have been concerned about the secondary implications of the intelligence exposure because it allegedly targets Muslim communities inside Russia, which is likely to cause further resentment and alienation in a community that Russia already discriminates against but relies on for violent action
The think tank also noted that "the delay in the deployment of Russian law enforcement agencies to Crocus City Hall could have been the result of conditioning on the need to act cautiously in a situation that could escalate into a mass hostage situation.
In addition, ISW outlined in their report that russia's statements insisting on Ukraine's involvement - "confirm the Kremlin's longstanding efforts to justify an ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine in the long term by falsely portraying the existence of an independent and sovereign Ukraine as an existential threat to russia.
In doing so, says the Institute for the Study of War report, the Kremlin and its ultra-nationalist mouthpieces are apparently ignoring the clear threat of likely ISIL operations on Russian territory - neglecting the clear threat ISIL poses to Russia's internal security and its civilian population.
Recall
An affiliate of the Islamic State terrorist group, which claimed responsibility for the shooting at a concert hall in Russia, has "made several attempts to strike French soil" in recent months, French President Emmanuel Macron said Monday.
In the United States confirmed the information that "Islamic State" has claimed responsibility for the terrorist attack in "Crocus City Hall". This is reported by The New York Times with reference to American officials.
