Agricultural export in a trap: how russian strikes on ports are strangling the Ukrainian economy and whether there are ways to save it
Kyiv • UNN
Russia has intensified attacks on the ports of Greater Odesa, leading to a halt in shipping and threatening losses of export revenue of 2.5 billion dollars. Alternative export routes via the Danube and overland are unable to fully compensate for the loss of export capacity
Russia is deliberately destroying maritime port infrastructure and striking ships near the shores of Ukraine. In the first months of 2026 alone, 180 attacks were carried out on the ports of Greater Odesa. Currently, ship traffic has ceased. The enemy's goal is obvious – the Russians are trying to stop the export of agricultural products from Ukraine. How this will affect the economic situation in our country and whether there are ways to solve the problem – read in the article by UNN.
Despite constant attacks, in the first half of the year, about 35 million tons of cargo were transported through Ukrainian seaports, and products were exported to 56 countries worldwide. However, Russia continues to increase the intensity of strikes, and eventually the risks outweighed the benefits, as the Russians regularly hit not only the port infrastructure itself but also ships, using not only "Shaheds" but also ballistic missiles.
Due to massive Russian strikes, ships have stopped entering Ukrainian ports. The All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council has already stated that the situation, in terms of the combination of factors and consequences, is even more severe than in 2022.
The cost of enemy attacks
According to estimates by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, in the first few months of 2026 alone, the ports of Greater Odesa suffered over 180 strikes – almost as many as in the entire previous year of 2025. At the same time, the direct physical losses of the Ukrainian agricultural sector due to Russian aggression have already exceeded $11 billion, of which at least $6.5 billion accounts for destroyed or damaged equipment, elevators, grain storage facilities, as well as stolen or destroyed agricultural products. And this is before the actual halt of deep-water seaports, through which an average of 90% of all grain and legume exports passed.
But it is not only about damaged infrastructure – the overall losses of the industry also include lost revenues, logistical problems, reduction of sown areas, and loss of workers.
The head of the National Bank of Ukraine, Andriy Pyshnyi, estimates that due to the shelling of ports and disruption of maritime logistics, Ukraine may lose about $2.5 billion in export revenue in the second half of 2026 alone. The NBU estimates the overall negative impact on the economy at 0.9% of GDP for the entire year of 2026.
Currently, losses in export revenue are already estimated at $80 million per day. All of this increases pressure on the Ukrainian economy as a whole.
Capacity and cost of alternative routes
Representatives of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine have already discussed alternative export routes with partners from Romania, Moldova, and the EU. The parties, in particular, agreed to increase the capacity of ports in the Danube region, develop railway, road, and border infrastructure, and accelerate customs and border control procedures.
Currently, the ports of the Danube region are the most attractive alternative export route.
However, as explained in a comment to UNN by analyst Maksym Hopka of the association "Ukrainian Club of Agrarian Business," this year, due to climatic conditions, the water level in the Danube has significantly dropped, and navigation is complicated – barges, if they operate, are only 20-30% full. And the situation will not change significantly until October-November.
Overall, according to expert estimates, the capacity of the Danube ports is approximately 1.7 - 1.8 million tons per month. It should also be noted that ports such as Reni and Izmail have also repeatedly been targets of enemy attacks.
Regarding land routes, the actual capacity of railway and road routes in previous years reached, in some months, 1.8 million tons of grain and legumes per month.
"But it must be understood that everything depends on the transportation season, the crops being sold, volumes, capacity at the borders, transshipment capabilities, and the available amount of transport, primarily railcars," the analyst clarified, adding that the figure he mentioned is the maximum recorded total capacity in previous years.
According to estimates by the VAR, Ukraine needs to export about 67 million tons of agricultural products. Alternative routes are insufficient for such volumes.
"Deep-water ports over the past year have provided 88-92% of monthly agricultural exports," explains Maksym Hopka.
According to rough estimates, these ports handled up to 7 million tons of cargo monthly. "In July, agricultural exports fell by almost 25% compared to June," the analyst adds.
The cost of transporting Ukrainian grain by alternative routes is significantly higher. As the expert from UCAB explains, if sea freight at the beginning of July was $20 per ton, by mid-July it had already reached $40 after the blockade. Freight from Danube ports, for example, to the Romanian port of Constanta will cost an additional $30-40 more. Road transport is the least attractive - there, transportation costs can reach up to $100 per ton depending on the buyer's country. Such logistics costs make exports less profitable.
Pressure on agricultural producers
According to estimates by experts from the Ukrainian Agrarian Council (VAR), in the 2026/2027 marketing year, production of major grains and oilseeds will amount to about 81.4 million tons, and taking into account carryover stocks, the total resource of products for consumption and export will reach about 85 million tons.
"A prolonged blockade of seaports threatens the formation of a huge commodity surplus — from 27.4 to 32.4 million tons of agricultural products will pressure the market throughout the marketing year," the agrarian council notes.
According to the association, due to the halt in purchases by traders, purchase prices have already begun to fall sharply. In some cases, they have dropped to UAH 7,000 per ton, which is below the full cost of production. Such a situation could trigger a wave of bankruptcies, especially among small agricultural producers, who, as Maksym Hopka notes, have nowhere to store grain until the ports open.
"The situation demands immediate decisions. This is not about a usual seasonal deterioration in market conditions, but about the risk of a breakdown in the production cycle in one of the key sectors of the Ukrainian economy," the VAR emphasizes.
To prevent a large-scale economic and banking crisis, farmers are calling on the government to introduce an anti-crisis package of measures, including the restructuring of existing agricultural loans and a review of the conditions for obtaining future borrowings. The agrarian association also expects the fastest possible restoration of port infrastructure. But here another question arises – the protection of ports and the very safety of navigation not only today, but also in the future.
Strengthening port protection – a strategic task
While the search for alternative logistics routes continues, another thing is becoming increasingly obvious: without a qualitative strengthening of the physical and air defense of the ports themselves, no alternative route will solve the problem in the long term – attacks have been ongoing for over three years and, judging by the dynamics of 2026, are only intensifying.
Certain steps have already been taken. The Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority (USPA) is implementing a set of solutions to enhance infrastructure resilience — mobile shelters, additional protective structures, gabions, big bags, anti-drone constructions, as well as floating security barriers to protect water areas from maritime unmanned systems. Special mobile air defense groups have appeared in the ports, already demonstrating results in intercepting drones, and this experience is planned to be scaled up. In May, the Cabinet of Ministers expanded the experimental project for protecting critical infrastructure objects specifically to maritime and inland water transport, providing funding for protective measures for private facilities from the budget. President Zelenskyy announced the creation of a maritime defense line with interceptor drones, which will be launched, among other things, from maritime platforms, specifically to counter "Shaheds" and cruise missiles in the coastal zone of Odesa region. But there remains another threat that Russia is betting on — ballistic missiles. Understanding that Ukraine can actively counter drones and cruise missiles, the enemy is increasingly using ballistic missiles. Ukraine critically lacks missiles for Patriot systems, and US President Donald Trump, based on his recent statements, is in no hurry to give our country permission to produce them.
A promising alternative for protecting the Ukrainian sky is the joint anti-missile shield Freyja with European partners. The key element of the system — the FP-7.x interceptor missile — is a development of the Ukrainian defense company Fire Point. In July 2026, Ukraine and 9 other European countries signed a joint declaration, which, in fact, marked the start of creating a joint anti-ballistic shield.
The main idea of the project is that it is not another single and extremely expensive installation, but a scalable and, according to the developers' design, many times cheaper solution, potentially capable of covering not just one or two strategic objects, but dozens of dispersed targets along the coast simultaneously. It is precisely this mass approach that is lacking today for saving the ports: Odesa, Chornomorsk, Pivdennyi, and Mykolaiv are not a single point on the map that can be covered by one Patriot battalion, but a series of dispersed berths, elevators, and terminals, each requiring its own protection.
But the implementation of the project requires efforts not only from Ukraine but also from partners. After all, besides the interceptor missile, other components are needed for deploying Freyja, in particular, various types of radars, command centers, etc. All this must be provided by European defense manufacturers who have joined the project. But European bureaucracy requires compliance with procedures that delay the implementation of the plan.
Meanwhile, not only the stability of the Ukrainian economy is under threat, but also the food security of countries waiting for Ukrainian grain. Global markets are also feeling the pressure — the blocking of Ukrainian exports has provoked an increase in world grain prices by more than 20%. These trends demonstrate the need for strategic protection of port infrastructure — as long as the Russian threat is not neutralized, only strengthening protection can truly rectify the situation.
"Effective cooperation on grain exports, on ensuring normal logistics — this is a contribution to global food security and countering the unfolding cost-of-living crisis in countries and regions bordering Europe, particularly in the Middle East and North African countries. Any social unrest there due to a possible rise in food prices, and the overall cost of living, will mean new tangible risks for Europe. Every such crisis in regions near Europe provokes additional migration waves. Therefore, truly guaranteeing food security and protection from Russian terror against the agricultural sector and maritime trade routes is a direct interest of all of us in Europe," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized recently.