Despite the war, the hryvnia remains relatively stable thanks to the balanced policy of the National Bank of Ukraine, international financial support, and significant foreign exchange earnings from exports. However, 2026 promises new challenges, and Ukrainians are traditionally interested in what the exchange rate of the dollar and euro will be. UNN decided to ask fintech expert, co-founder of Concord Fintech Solutions, Olena Sosedka, how much the dollar and euro will cost next year.
The exchange rate will gradually increase in 2026. Sharp jumps are not expected, but at the same time, one should be prepared for the currency to become more expensive
She added that a number of factors, related to both the internal situation in Ukraine and the war, as well as geopolitical ones, will influence changes in the exchange rate.
Dollar: moderate devaluation of the hryvnia
We see that in recent years, the dollar has been held within a range artificially regulated by the National Bank. This necessity is due to the war. Next year, a moderate devaluation of the hryvnia is expected. The exchange rate will fluctuate up to 48 hryvnias per dollar
According to her, among other things, the intensity of hostilities and the pace of receiving financial assistance from partners will also affect the exchange rate.
The fintech expert added that the main risks will be possible delays in international financing and a reduction in foreign exchange earnings from exports. A negative impact from logistics problems is also not excluded.
At the same time, according to Olena Sosedka, a positive factor could be the launch of infrastructure recovery programs with the participation of foreign investors, which will bring significant foreign exchange resources to the country.
Euro: dependence on global trends
According to the fintech expert, the euro exchange rate traditionally has a more unstable dynamic, as it depends not only on the state of the Ukrainian economy but also on the euro-dollar ratio in world markets.
We see that Europe is currently experiencing a period of slowed economic growth. This means that the euro may lose ground against the dollar. Therefore, for Ukraine, I predict that the euro will reach 52 hryvnias in 2026 - noted Olena Sosedka.
The fintech expert does not rule out possible fluctuations in the euro exchange rate. If the dollar depreciates on world markets, the euro may strengthen. This may be especially relevant against the backdrop of the shutdown that began in the United States.
What does this mean for business and citizens?
Olena Sosedka advises Ukrainians and entrepreneurs to include cautious scenarios in their financial plans.
The hryvnia will maintain stability only if partner support continues and the NBU's policy is adequate. But we must be prepared for the fact that the dollar and euro exchange rates will gradually increase. This is natural for an economy that is trying to recover after the war
She emphasizes: the key to minimizing risks remains diversification — for the state, for business, and for every Ukrainian.
Olena Sosedka advises not to keep funds in one asset to prevent large losses of financial opportunities.
Recall
The government submitted to the Verkhovna Rada a draft state budget for 2026, in which it laid down the estimated average annual exchange rate at 45.7 UAH/dollar, and the projected annual euro exchange rate at 49.4 UAH/euro.