NATO fighters shot down several Russian drones, more than a week has passed since those events when Russian UAVs violated Polish airspace. But even now, American and Western intelligence services cannot conclude whether it was an accident or a deliberate test of the alliance's defense. This is stated in a CNN article, writes UNN.
Details
Despite different opinions and statements, Western experts and intelligence unanimously state that the Kremlin is ready to take risks and escalate its paramilitary sentiments and provoke NATO.
"That doesn't mean it's not dangerous. Certainly, something has changed in how the Kremlin thinks about its risk tolerance when attacking."
Ukraine and Poland immediately stated that the drones were launched intentionally. Warsaw even reacted to Donald Trump's words, who suggested that it "could have been a mistake." Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk sharply replied: "We know" that it was not an accident.
In its material, CNN notes that at the same time, there is currently a discussion in the US and among allies. One American military official considers the probability of intentionality "50/50." Others hint that the drones could have simply lost their GPS signal due to Ukrainian jammers.
"We just don't have enough intelligence either way."
Experts particularly emphasized that Russian troops often use decoys to calculate and exhaust air defense. Therefore, it is likely that the invasion of Polish airspace was not a test of NATO's defense, but a side effect of massive attacks on Ukraine. But not everyone shares this opinion. One American military official and a congressional representative told CNN that it looked "intentional."
The situation for analyzing events became significantly more complicated when a drone recently flew into the territory of Romania, which is also a NATO member.
"It's a balance. Do we ignore it, or do we consider it a significant escalation in the sense that Russia is now directly exploring the air defenses of its potential adversaries?"
Recall
On the night of September 9-10, during Russia's night attack on Ukraine, Polish airspace was repeatedly violated by drones. Protective measures were taken. Drones that posed an immediate threat were shot down by Polish and allied aircraft. This is the first time in Poland's modern history that the Polish Air Force used weapons in the country's airspace.
Later, opinions were expressed that five of the Russian UAVs that flew into Poland were heading directly to a NATO base through which the alliance supplies military aid to Ukraine. This was reported by the German newspaper Die Welt.