On Tuesday, President Donald Trump's media company, Trump Media & Technology Group Corp., announced a partnership with digital asset exchange Crypto.com to make prediction markets available through the Truth Social social network, owned by the White House chief, UNN reports with reference to Gismodo.
Details
The new product, called "Truth Predict," will allow Truth Social users to bet on a wide range of future events, such as election outcomes, sports, and commodity prices. These bets will take the form of prediction contracts, typically valued in cents and reflecting the percentage of confidence players have in a potential outcome. If a user makes a correct bet, the contract settles at $1, but if the user is wrong, the contract is worth zero.
TMTG's new offering will compete with existing prediction markets such as the US-regulated Kalshi and Polymarket, which is headquartered in New York but has not offered services to US customers since reaching a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2022.
Truth Predict plans to initially launch in the US, then expand internationally "as soon as all necessary requirements are met." According to Tuesday's announcement, the product will begin beta testing soon.
President Trump was the largest shareholder of TMTG, but after winning the general election last year, he transferred 114,750,000 shares worth approximately $4 billion to a trust controlled by his son, Donald Trump Jr. A Securities and Exchange Commission filing indicates that President Trump retains indirect control over the shares.
Digital prediction markets raise several complex philosophical questions. Proponents say that decentralized prediction has value, arguing that betting markets give people insight into what the masses truly think, free from the influence of powerful corporations and political interests.
The point of Polymarket is that from the perspective of traders, it's a betting site, but from the perspective of viewers, it's a news site. On Twitter and the internet, there are all sorts of people (including elites) making harmful and inaccurate predictions about conflicts, and being able to see whether people who actually have experience in the game think something has a 2% or 50% chance is a valuable feature that can help people keep their sanity.
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But sites like Polymarket have also been criticized for offering war markets, where users can bet on current and potential geopolitical conflicts. "Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?" currently has a 3% chance on Polymarket, while "Will the US invade Venezuela in 2025?" has 14%.
The current level of liquidity placed on these events is unlikely to affect their outcomes, but critics argue that if enough money flows into any market in the future, it could incentivize influential groups to tip the scales and bring something – an assassination, a coup, a war – to fruition in real life.
CFTC regulations prohibit contracts on events that refer to terrorism, assassination, war, or any other illegal activity, so US-approved firms do not offer direct invasion markets like Polymarket. But that doesn't mean these trading platforms are free from potentially controversial incentives: on Kalshi, players can bet on the number of deportations in Trump's first year in office or whether leaders like Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro will remain in power until 2025 (although Kalshi, in an attempt to prevent assassination, notes that in the event of Maduro's death, the market will pay out the last price, rather than settling at $1 or zero).
These conflicting incentives could appear even more convoluted on a prediction market platform so closely associated with the President of the United States.
Addition
US President Donald Trump announced the start of construction of a new ballroom in the White House. The demolition of the East Wing of the residence is currently underway. The new premises are intended for official celebrations and state events.