Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin may try to "test NATO’s resolve with a limited assault on an allied country in the next few years", according to new U.S. intelligence reports that posit possible scenarios "ranging from a cyberattack to a small-scale land incursion," The Wall Street Journal reports, writes UNN.
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The U.S. previously assessed that Putin would not provoke a North Atlantic Treaty country while he was still waging war in Ukraine. But that assessment changed at the beginning of this year, U.S. officials said, as Putin has come under increasing pressure in Ukraine and at home. Ukrainian drones, the publication writes, are causing growing damage both to the Russian army and to the oil industry, while Putin's forces are making less progress on the front lines amid heavy losses.
U.S. and European leaders are increasingly seeing signs that Russia is conducting probing attacks to test NATO's resolve, including a Russian cruise missile that fell in Poland and drones that crossed into Romania.
"Putin’s goal in attacking NATO during a continuing war with Ukraine, if it happens, would be to fracture the alliance," U.S. officials said.
"The question is how the United States would respond in such a case," said Heather Conley, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, regarding a possible Russian invasion. "[Russia's] goal has always been to call NATO's credibility into question and separate the United States from its allies."
U.S. intelligence officials are analyzing whether Moscow intends to escalate its aggressive actions against European allies in the near future, sources said. The concern is that Putin could become more dangerous when cornered, U.S. officials said.
"The possible threats range from a cyberattack on a NATO country or sending unmarked armed groups to occupy territory to a limited incursion on the alliance’s eastern flank," the publication states.
According to U.S. intelligence assessments, the timeframe for any Russian move is estimated to be from the fall of this year through 2029.
"The likelihood of the most extreme scenario—a limited ground invasion—is low, but it is increasing over time," according to the reports. Such a move has always been considered extremely unlikely because it would activate NATO's Article 5, which obliges members to provide collective defense. But Article 5 does not define NATO's response to cyber or hybrid threats as clearly.
Spokespeople for the U.S. Department of Defense and the Supreme Allied Commander Europe declined to discuss classified intelligence. A spokesperson for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence did not respond to a request for comment.
"We always think through and prepare for any scenarios. NATO is watching, and we are ready to deter and defend as necessary, which we continue to demonstrate," said Colonel Martin O'Donnell, a NATO spokesperson.
The new assessments heighten existing concerns among U.S. officials about shortages of certain critical munitions. "In addition to certain long- and short-range missiles, stocks of other critical air-defense assets are also low, including interceptors for Patriot, SM-3 and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), as well as THAAD radars and anti-aircraft artillery systems," officials said.
Pentagon chief spokesperson Sean Parnell called claims about ammunition shortages false. White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said that the U.S. military has "more than enough" ammunition to "serve all of President Trump's strategic objectives," adding that the president had urged defense contractors to produce more ammunition.
Trump outraged by leak of information about U.S. ammunition stockpiles – CNN07.08.26, 02:35
"We have everything necessary to strike at the time and place chosen by the president. In several combatant commands, we have already conducted successful operations while maintaining a deep, ready arsenal to protect our people and our interests. Any adversary who confuses media noise with American weakness will learn the truth through bitter experience," Parnell said.